The effects of dry air intrusion on landfalling hurricanes are investigated using eight numerical simulations. The simulations differ in the initial amount of moisture in the storm core and its horizontal extent from the storm center. The storms evolve very differently during the 36-h simulation. Storms with a small radial extent of moisture develop minimal rainbands, intensify rapidly in the first 3 h, and weaken as dry air from the 800–850-hPa layer wraps cyclonically and inward around the storm core. As the air approaches the core, it sinks (possibly by eyewall downdrafts or as a result of evaporative cooling), reaches the storm’s inflow layer, and entrains into the eyewall updrafts. Storms with large radial extent of moisture develop into larger storms with large rainbands, having smaller intensification rates initially, but continue to intensify for a longer period of time. Rainband downdrafts release low equivalent potential temperature air into the moat region. Low-level convergence into the rainbands reduces the magnitude of eyewall inflow. Both factors reduce storm intensification initially. Simultaneously, the rainbands act as a barrier between the moist core and the dry environment, preventing dry air from penetrating the storm core. As land is approached, inflowing air is no longer replenished with heat and moisture. Eventually, rainband convection erodes and dry air approaches the storm core from the landward side causing the storms to weaken. Without the presence of land, a hurricane can sustain itself in a dry environment, provided its moist envelope is large enough.
Using an idealized landfalling model hurricane, the impact of different land surface characteristics on hurricane rainfall distribution before, during, and after landfall is investigated. Before landfall, maximum rainfall occurs on the right side of the storm track as a result of dry air intrusion from both the environmental flow behind the vortex and the land surface ahead of the vortex. These sources of dry air combine to destabilize the right side and stabilize the left side of the storm. Upon landfall, the rainfall maximum shifts to the left of the storm track over land, near the coast. Increased friction over land drives a region of convergence in the entire front half of the storm. While mean rainfall rates decrease, localized areas of large rainfall accumulations may occur as a result of this frictional forcing. Over land, the rainfall area broadens and mean rainfall rates decrease. No differences are detected in inner-core rainfall rates between cases, but outer-core rainfall rates and rainfall coverage increase with moister land surfaces. Hence, significant differences in rainfall accumulations occur depending on moisture availability of the land surface. Since reconnaissance planes cannot fly over land, forecasters are often forced to make extrapolations from reconnaissance data over water. They should take extreme caution in doing so, since rainfall distributions may change suddenly upon landfall as different forcing mechanisms take over.
As a minimal hurricane, Danny moved over Mobile Bay around 0900 UTC 19 July 1997 and became stationary by midmorning, while situated within a synoptic col. Danny then evolved into an asymmetric storm with an intensely convective rainband that produced torrential rainfall through 1200 UTC 20 July 1997. Danny’s center remained <100 km from the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Mobile, Alabama, for over 48 h, allowing long-term surveillance of the storm’s inner core. This event marked the first time the tropical Z–R relationship was employed on an operational WSR-88D system during tropical cyclone landfall. A radar-estimated maximum rainfall accumulation of 1097 mm (43.2 in.) was analyzed over southwestern Mobile Bay. A NWS cooperative rain gauge located on Dauphin Island, Alabama, measured 896 mm (35.28 in.). An adjacent standard rain gauge measured the highest rainfall amount of 932 mm (36.71 in.). This paper investigates the spatial and temporal distribution and potential magnitude of Danny’s torrential rainfall episode over coastal Alabama. It is shown that both gauges and radar seriously underestimated event rainfall. An estimate is given for what could have been the true event rainfall amount. In the case of the radar, the WSR-88D Algorithm Testing and Display System is used to obtain a better estimate of rainfall using higher dBZ caps than the operational 50 dBZ. In the case of the tipping-bucket rain gauge, wind and mechanical error estimates were applied in order to quantify rainfall underestimation.
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