Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model

Hu, Kelin; Chen, Qin; Kimball, Sytske K.

doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9960-z

Cited by 53 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 40 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Hu et al [12] improved a parametric hurricane wind model based on the asymmetric Hollandtype vortex models. The model creates a two-dimensional surface wind field based on the NHC forecast (or observed) hurricane wind and track data.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three improvements have been made to retain consistency between the input parameters and the model output and to better resolve the asymmetric structure of the hurricane. Please refer to [12] for details.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Holland [11] assumed cyclostrophic balance where x = 0.5 and γ = 0 . However, Hu et al [12] retained the Coriolis terms ( γ = 1 ) and showed that excluding the Coriolis effect in the parameter B, that is, using Eq. (2) instead of Eq.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Owing to the complexity of actual hurricanes, it is important and necessary to make full use of all available forecast wind data to improve the accuracy of a parametric hurricane wind model. A method to blend the Holland scheme [11] with asymmetries was developed by [12], and is described in the next section. This paper assesses Hu et al's [12] parametric hurricane surface wind model using field observations of several historical tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A method to blend the Holland scheme [11] with asymmetries was developed by [12], and is described in the next section. This paper assesses Hu et al's [12] parametric hurricane surface wind model using field observations of several historical tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. In-situ measurements of wind speed and wind direction at 12 offshore buoys in the Gulf of Mexico and the hurricane wind hindcasts from the NHC are utilized as the reference to evaluate the predictive skills of the parametric model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Assessment of a Parametric Hurricane Surface Wind Model for Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

Hu¹,

Chen²,

Fitzpatrick³

2012

Advances in Hurricane Research - Modelling, Meteorology, Preparedness and Impacts

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Assessment of a Parametric Hurricane Surface Wind Model for Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

Hu¹,

Chen²,

Fitzpatrick³

2012

Advances in Hurricane Research - Modelling, Meteorology, Preparedness and Impacts

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A comparative study of wave‐current interactions over the eastern Canadian shelf under severe weather conditions using a coupled wave‐circulation model

Wang

Jiang

2016

JGR Oceans

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A coupled wave‐circulation model is used to examine interactions between surface gravity waves and ocean currents over the eastern Canadian shelf and adjacent deep waters during three severe weather events. The simulated significant wave heights (SWHs) and peak wave periods reveal the importance of wave‐current interactions (WCI) during and after the storm. In two fast‐moving hurricane cases, the maximum SWHs are reduced by more than 11% on the right‐hand side of the storm track and increased by about 5% on the left‐hand side due to different WCI mechanisms on waves on two sides of the track. The dominate mechanisms of the WCI on waves include the current‐induced modification of wind energy input to the wave generation, and current‐induced wave advection and refraction. In the slow‐moving winter storm case, the effect of WCI decreases the maximum SWHs on both sides of the storm track due to different results of the current‐induced wave advection, which is affected greatly by the storm translation speed. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST) cooling induced by hurricanes and SST warming induced by the winter storm are also enhanced (up to 1.2°C) by the WCI mechanisms on circulation and hydrography. The 3D wave forces can affect water columns up to 200 m in all three storm cases. By comparison, the effect of breaking wave‐induced mixing in the ocean upper layer is more important under strong stratification conditions in two hurricane cases than under weak stratification conditions in the winter storm case.

show abstract

Validation and uncertainty quantification of metocean models for assessing hurricane risk

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A reliable metocean model, with its uncertainty quantified and its accuracy validated for conditions appropriate to assessing risk, is essential to understand the risk posed by hurricanes to offshore infrastructure such as offshore wind turbines. In this paper, three metocean models are considered, with the seastate predicted using the commercial software Mike 21, and the meteorological forcing defined by three conditions. The three conditions include (1) reanalysis data within and surrounding the hurricane, (2) predictions from the empirical Holland model within the hurricane and reanalysis data surrounding the hurricane, and (3) predictions from the empirical Holland model within the hurricane and wind-free conditions surrounding the hurricane. The accuracy of the first metocean model is validated with (1) measurements of wind speed, wave height, wave period, and storm surge during 23 historical hurricanes from 1999 to 2012 and(2) a comparison to hindcast data from WaveWatch III, another numerical metocean model. The prediction performance of the second and third metocean models is then compared with that of the first to evaluate the impact of meteorological conditions on model predictions, as the third metocean model is necessary for risk analysis, where reanalysis data of meteorological conditions is not available. This study shows that the inconsistency between the modeling of meteorological conditions for risk assessment and for validation is influential for hurricanes with low maximum wind speeds, when model predictions are significantly better if the meteorological conditions surrounding the hurricane wind field are included. This study also shows that this inconsistency is effectively diminished when considering only events with high maximum wind speeds.Since high wind speeds are what is relevant to risk assessments, the third metocean model can be reasonably used to assess hurricane risk. Finally, the uncertainties, biases, and correlations of uncertainties in the model predictions for wind speed, wave height, wave period, and storm surge are quantified for the third metocean model, and a numerical example is constructed to illustrate the impact of including uncertainty on the assessment of risk to offshore infrastructure during hurricanes. The example demonstrates how uncertainty and correlation of uncertainty influence the size and shape of a 50-year environmental contour of wind speed and wave height. KEYWORDSnumerical model validation, offshore hurricane multi-hazard, risk analysis, uncertainty quantification

show abstract

Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model

Cited by 53 publications

References 40 publications

Assessment of a Parametric Hurricane Surface Wind Model for Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

Assessment of a Parametric Hurricane Surface Wind Model for Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

A comparative study of wave‐current interactions over the eastern Canadian shelf under severe weather conditions using a coupled wave‐circulation model

Validation and uncertainty quantification of metocean models for assessing hurricane risk

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About