The boreal forest, one of the largest biomes on Earth, provides ecosystem services that benefit society at levels ranging from local to global. Currently, about two-thirds of the area covered by this biome is under some form of management, mostly for wood production. Services such as climate regulation are also provided by both the unmanaged and managed boreal forests. Although most of the boreal forests have retained the resilience to cope with current disturbances, projected environmental changes of unprecedented speed and amplitude pose a substantial threat to their health. Management options to reduce these threats are available and could be implemented, but economic incentives and a greater focus on the boreal biome in international fora are needed to support further adaptation and mitigation actions.

Broad-scale fire regime modelling is frequently based on large ecological and (or) administrative units. However, these units may not capture spatial heterogeneity in fire regimes and may thus lead to spatially inaccurate estimates of future fire activity. In this study, we defined homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones for Canada based on annual area burned (AAB) and fire occurrence (FireOcc), and we used them to model future (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) fire activity using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). We identified a total of 16 HFR zones explaining 47.7% of the heterogeneity in AAB and FireOcc for the 1959-1999 period. MARS models based on HFR zones projected a 3.7-fold increase in AAB and a 3.0-fold increase in FireOcc by 2100 when compared with 1961-1990, with great interzone heterogeneity. The greatest increases would occur in zones located in central and northwestern Canada. Much of the increase in AAB would result from a sharp increase in fire activity during July and August. Ecozone-and HFR-based models projected relatively similar nationwide FireOcc and AAB. However, very high spatial discrepancies were noted between zonations over extensive areas. The proposed HFR zonation should help providing more spatially accurate estimates of future ecological patterns largely driven by fire in the boreal forest such as biodiversity patterns, energy flows, and carbon storage than those obtained from large-scale multipurpose classification units.

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As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Logging to "salvage" economic returns from forests affected by natural disturbances has become increasingly prevalent globally. Despite potential negative effects on biodiversity, salvage logging is often conducted, even in areas otherwise excluded from logging and reserved for nature conservation, inter alia because strategic priorities for post-disturbance management are widely lacking.A review of the existing literature revealed that most studies investigating the effects of salvage logging on biodiversity have been conducted less than 5 years following natural disturbances, and focused on non-saproxylic organisms.A meta-analysis across 24 species groups revealed that salvage logging significantly decreases numbers of species of eight taxonomic groups. Richness of dead wood dependent taxa (i.e. saproxylic organisms) decreased more strongly than richness of non-saproxylic taxa. In contrast, taxonomic groups typically associated with open habitats increased in the number of species after salvage logging.By analysing 134 original species abundance matrices, we demonstrate that salvage logging significantly alters community composition in 7 of 17 species groups, particularly affecting saproxylic assemblages. Our results suggest that salvage logging is not consistent with the management objectives of protected areas. Substantial changes, such as the retention of dead wood in naturally disturbed forests, are needed to support biodiversity. Future research should investigate the amount and spatio-temporal distribution of retained dead wood needed to maintain all components of biodiversity.

We evaluated geographic variations in mean fire return intervals and postfire forest succession within a 66 497 km2 land area located in the eastern Quebec boreal forest. Fire return intervals were calculated using a time since last fire map for 1800–2000, and forest dynamics were studied by superimposing 3204 forest inventory plots onto the fire map. Mean fire return interval proved significantly shorter in the western part of the study area, at 270 years, compared with the eastern part, where it was probably more than 500 years. The two main tree species in the study area were balsam fir ( Abies balsamea (L.) P. Mill.) and black spruce ( Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP). Balsam fir abundance increased progressively as a function of time since fire, whereas black spruce abundance increased during the first 90 years after fire and then declined. Balsam fir was significantly more abundant in the southeastern portion of the study area, which we attribute to the combined limitations imposed by temperature along the north–south axis and by fire along the east–west axis. Large forest patches (i.e., ≥200 km2) dominated by early successional tree species, within a matrix of irregular black spruce – balsam fir mixtures, are an important feature of preindustrial forest landscapes in this region.

Fire is fundamental to the natural dynamics of the North American boreal forest. It is therefore often suggested that the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances (eg logging) on a managed landscape are attenuated if the patterns and processes created by these events resemble those of natural disturbances (eg fire). To provide forest management guidelines, we investigate the long‐term variability in the mean fire interval (MFI) of a boreal landscape in eastern North America, as reconstructed from lacustrine (lake‐associated) sedimentary charcoal. We translate the natural variability in MFI into a range of landscape age structures, using a simple modeling approach. Although using the array of possible forest age structures provides managers with some flexibility, an assessment of the current state of the landscape suggests that logging has already caused a shift in the age‐class distribution toward a stronger representation of young stands with a concurrent decrease in old‐growth stands. Logging is indeed quickly forcing the studied landscape outside of its long‐term natural range of variability, implying that substantial changes in management practices are required, if we collectively decide to maintain these fundamental attributes of the boreal forest.

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