The paper aims to the topical issue of improving the system in the planning of carriage of dangerous goods by rail subject to ensuring a high level of safety of the transport process and minimal costs for its implementation. Formalization of this process leads to the formation of an optimization task of the two-stage mathematical model. To implement the first stage, a mathematical model in searching the best route based on risk minimization is developed. In order to exclude the unacceptably complex and expensive options for the carriage of dangerous goods from the many possible routes, the authors abided by the condition not to exceed the critical operating costs. The second stage in the process of planning routes for dangerous goods takes into account the hazard identification study in the technological process of car movement with dangerous goods. Considering that the probability of a potential traffic accident is a complex random variable, which is due to a set of elementary previously unknown events, its estimation was made on the basis of the Bayesian approach. Based on the simulation results, the following reliability values are determined at which a transport accident should not emerge.
This article is devoted to the actual issue of improving the automated control technology of trains traffic with dangerous goods due to the addition of the existing set of tasks. These tasks are solved on the basis of operating automatized working places of dispatching personnel, by the software for decision-making support system developed on the basis of the graph of the Bayesian Belief Network that describes the security status of trains traffic en route. The scientific value of the article lies in the development of new technology for planning and managing the transport of dangerous goods through intelligent support for decisions at the tactical and operational levels.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.