This research article provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of key structural changes in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex subsectors until 2060, focusing on decarbonization efforts. The background places the issue of decarbonization in a broader context, considering the country’s vast size and sparse population. The study’s purpose involves analyzing the development of the climate agenda by comparing two scenarios: a “reference” scenario without decarbonization measures and a carbon neutrality scenario until 2060 (CN2060). A mathematical technical-economic model based on the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) serves as the method to optimize and simulate Kazakhstan’s energy system. The main findings reveal sets of policies, standards, and legislative, economic, and political decisions that are required to achieve CN2060. Additionally, the integration of a low-carbon policy, sectoral and cross-cutting approaches, the impact of the coronavirus crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and energy security issues receive a discussion. The article concludes with projected shares of generation and investment in renewable energy sources (RES) necessary for attaining CN2060. This work offers novel insights into challenges and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s transition to a low-carbon economy.
This work proposes a distribution locational marginal price (DLMP)-based transactive energy (TE) framework for distribution systems with enthusiastic or smart prosumers. The framework uses a multi-agent system (MAS) as the basis on which the proposed TE model, i.e., distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) based TE management system (DTEMS), is implemented. DTEMS uses a novel metric known as the nodal earning component, which is determined by the optimal power flow (OPF) based smart auction mechanism, to schedule the TE transactions optimally among the stakeholders by alleviating the congestion in the distribution system. Based on the individual contributions to the congestion relief, DTEMS ranks the prosumers and loads as most valuable players (MVP) and assigns the energy trading price according to the category of the player. The effectiveness of the proposed TE model is verified by simulating the proposed DTEMS for a modified 33 bus radial distribution system fed with various plug-able energy resources, prosumers, and microgrids.
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