Optimization Modelling of the Decarbonization Scenario of the Total Energy System of Kazakhstan until 2060

Abstract

This research article provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of key structural changes in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex subsectors until 2060, focusing on decarbonization efforts. The background places the issue of decarbonization in a broader context, considering the country’s vast size and sparse population. The study’s purpose involves analyzing the development of the climate agenda by comparing two scenarios: a “reference” scenario without decarbonization measures and a carbon neutrality scenario until 2060 (CN2060). A mathematical technical-economic model based on the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) serves as the method to optimize and simulate Kazakhstan’s energy system. The main findings reveal sets of policies, standards, and legislative, economic, and political decisions that are required to achieve CN2060. Additionally, the integration of a low-carbon policy, sectoral and cross-cutting approaches, the impact of the coronavirus crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and energy security issues receive a discussion. The article concludes with projected shares of generation and investment in renewable energy sources (RES) necessary for attaining CN2060. This work offers novel insights into challenges and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

The Innovative Nature of Selected Polish Companies in the Energy Sector Compared to the Use of Renewable Energy Sources from a Financial and an Investor’s Perspective

“…In the circumstances described above, it may be expected that the standard problems of transformation, identified in the Polish economy by, inter alia, Drago and Gatto (2022) [30] and by Napolitano et al (2022) [31] and Alemayehu et al (2022) [32] in other emerging and developing economies, will be intensified.…”

“…Emerging and developing economies face many problems relating to innovation and to energy transformation. These problems stem from income inequalities and from no access to cutting-edge technology [28][29][30][31]. Furthermore, the problems are further intensified by a low level of social acceptance of changes and the remnants of imperfect political systems [32][33][34].…”

Strategic Decision-Making for Multi-Period Fleet Transition Towards Zero-Emission: Preliminary Study

“…Moreover, all the investments needed to reach that balance by the end of the planning horizon are optimally distributed across the planning period, so that the total surplus is maximized. The MARKALbased framework was widely utilized to assess developmental directions and the velocity of technological transition mainly for the energy sector, also towards its decarbonization, in Canada [28,29], Switzerland [30], Malaysia [31], Russia [32], the UK [33][34][35][36], the USA [37,38], Austria [39], China [40][41][42][43], Portugal [44][45][46], Italy [47], Iran [48], Turkey [49], Kazakhstan [50], Ireland [51], Poland [52], Greece [53], and Bulgaria [39].…”