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This paper assessed the effect of projected climate change on the grain yield of barley in fourteen administrative regions in the United Kingdom (UK). Climate data for the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s for the high emission scenario (HES), medium emissions scenario (MES) and low emissions scenario (LES) were obtained from the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) using the Weather Generator. Simulations were performed using the AquaCrop model and statistics of simulated future yields and baseline yields were compared. The results show that climate change could be beneficial to UK barley production. For all emissions scenarios and regions, differences between the simulated average future yields (2030s-2050s) and the observed yields in the baseline period ranged from 1.4 to 4 tons·ha −1 . The largest increase in yields and yield variability occurred under the HES in the 2050s. Absolute increases in yields over baseline yields were substantially greater in the western half of the UK than in the eastern regions but marginally from south to north. These increases notwithstanding, yield reductions were observed for some individual years due to saturated soil conditions (most common in Wales, Northern Ireland and South-West Scotland). These suggest risks of yield penalties in any growing season in the future, a situation that should be considered for planning adaptation and risk management.

Currently, the UK has a high self-sufficiency rate in barley production. This paper assessed the effects of projected climate and land use changes on feed barley production and, consequently, on meat supply in the UK from the 2030s to the 2050s. Total barley production under projected land use and climate changes ranged from 4.6 million tons in the 2030s to 9.0 million tons in the 2050s. From these, the projected feed barley supply ranged from approximately 2.3 to 4.6 million tons from the 2030s to the 2050s, respectively. The results indicate that while UK spring barley production will thrive under, and benefit from climate change, total land area allocated to barley production will ultimately determine self-sufficiency. Without expansion in the area of land and/or further significant increases in yields, the UK may face large deficits in domestic feed barley production and, for that matter, meat supply in the future. Hence, agricultural and food security policy needs to consider, principally, the effect of agricultural land use change on key crops, such as barley. Even though the UK can import feed barley or meat to address the deficits observed in this study, the question that needs to be addressed is where all that import will come from.

The paper investigates whether coffee producers can benefit by taking coffee production|marketing decisions on the basis of coffee futures forecasts. The methodology employed is to match futures and spot prices for the coffee futures contract traded at the international commodity exchanges. Regression analysis demonstrates that changes in spot prices are not explained by changes in lagged futures prices. On the contrary, it emerges that futures prices tend to adapt to the prevailing spot prices. The deviations of the spot prices from the lagged futures prices are over 30 per cent on average and they do not follow any systematic pattern. Therefore, the hypothesis that coffee futures market information could benefit coffee producers cannot be empirically supported. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This paper examines how the expansion of mainstreaming of Fair Trade over the last decade and the increasing corporate attention to social responsibility during the same period is resulting in Fair Trade evolving as a form of corporate social responsibility. We further examine the challenges this poses for the Fair Trade movement.e caf_1943 22..28

Environmental improvement initiatives in the coal mining industry: maximisation of the triple bottom line. Production Planning and Control, 30 (5-6). pp. 426-436.

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