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• Este é um artigo publicado em acesso aberto e distribuído sob os termos da Licença de Atribuição Creative Commons, que permite uso irrestrito, distribuição e reprodução em qualquer meio, desde que o autor e a fonte originais sejam creditados.

sentido, en las partes empíricas se comprueba que la ALBA depende de tres factores estrechamente ligados: su carácter antihegemónico de desafiar a Estados Unidos (soft balancing), la continuidad de los regímenes cubano y venezolano, y los recursos económicos destinados a la iniciativa. Palabras claveDesarrollo; integración regional; relaciones sur-sur; cooperación económica; régimen político; Cuba; Venezuela; América Latina; crisis económica; marxismo. AbstractThe Bolivarian Alliance for our America (ALBA) and its additional TCP (Trade Treaty of the People), driven by Cuba and Venezuela, emerged as an alternative to US hegemony and the proposal to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Since 2014, the initiative has faced a double crisis: the critical political and economic situation in Venezuela that limits the financing of ALBA; and the uncertainties of post-Castro Cuba that constrains its ideational basis. The article addresses three research questions: To which theoretical paradigm does ALBA correspond when distinguishing between discourse and reality? What are its ideational and material outcomes? Will ALBA survive despite financial and political restrictions in Cuba and Venezuela? These questions are answered in three sections. The first inscribes ALBA in relevant theoretical debates, the second focuses on an empirical analysis of its objectives and results, while the final section addresses the existential crisis in Venezuela and changes in Cuba. The article concludes with a forecast of ALBA's future. The authors maintain that the dynamics and results of ALBA respond to a realist soft balancing strategy, which contrasts with its regionalism-integration and counterhegemony neo-Marxist discourses. With this background, the two empirical sections argue that the viability of ALBA depends on three intertwined elements: its counter-hegemonic character of challenging the US (soft balancing); the continuity of the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes; and the available economic resources.

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RESUMEN: Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea reconocieron a Juan Guaidó como presidente interino de Venezuela, al tiempo que incrementaban las sanciones hacia el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro para que convocara elecciones e iniciara una transición democrática. Partiendo de la hipótesis de que los objetivos e instrumentos de ambos actores hacia Venezuela no son idénticos, este artículo analiza las semejanzas y diferencias en sus políticas, teniendo en cuenta el antecedente del caso cubano y la literatura sobre sanciones.