Gender differences in smoking quit rates are frequently reported and are the subject of much speculation. This study examined the generalizability of gender differences in abstinence across study sites, treatments, and time of relapse, as well as potential mediators and moderators of gender effects. Participants were smokers who participated in 3 randomized clinical trials of the nicotine patch (N = 632). Men had higher cessation rates than women at all follow-ups. The impact of gender on abstinence was unaffected by controlling for study site, treatment, or time of relapse. There was little evidence for mediation or moderation of this relation by any of a host of predictor variables. The magnitude and consistency of the gender differential, coupled with an inability to account for it, highlights a compelling need for additional research specifically aimed at elucidating the relation between gender and abstinence.

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Traditional models of physical dependence suggest that nicotine dependence should be reflected by the extent of drug exposure (e.g., smoking rate) and by evidence of physiological adaptation (e.g., withdrawal severity). An affective model suggests that nicotine dependence should be related to an individual's tendency to experience negative affect and expectations that nicotine use would ameliorate such affect. This research investigated the ability of these 2 models to predict relapse back to smoking at 6 months postquit. Logistic regression models were developed and tested in 505 heavy smokers participating in nicotine patch clinical trials. Results supported both models, but the most potent predictor of outcome was postquit negative affect, which accounted for much of the predictive validity of traditional measures of nicotine dependence. Affective reactivity appears to be a core constituent of dependence.

Recent models of addiction posit that drug outcome expectancies are influential determinants of drug use. The current research examines the dimensional structure, predictive validity, and discriminant validity of expectancies for cigarette smoking in a prospective study. There was a good fit between the factor structure of the Smoking Consequences Questionnaire and the observed data. In addition, the internal consistency of each scale was satisfactory. Moreover, there was considerable evidence for the predictive and discriminant validity of expectancies. Expectancies of positive outcomes (positive reinforcement, negative reinforcement, and appetite-weight control) predicted withdrawal severity. Negative reinforcement expectancies and expectancies of negative consequences predicted cessation success. Predictive relations remained significant after controlling for related constructs: negative affect, stress, and dependence measures.

The prevalence of smoking among college students is surprisingly high and represents a significant public health issue. However, there are few longitudinal studies of smoking in this population. This study examined the prevalence and predictors of transitions in smoking behavior among a cohort of 548 college students. Over the course of 4 years, 87% of daily smokers and almost 50% of occasional smokers continued to smoke. Among nonsmokers, 11.5% began smoking occasionally and none became daily smokers. In general, predictors of smoking behavior change were significant only among baseline occasional smokers and included gender, smoking outcome expectancies, and affect regulation expectations. Peer and parental smoking, demographics, affect, stress, and alcohol use were generally not predictive of change. Tobacco control interventions targeted at college students are clearly warranted.