The economic damage caused by episodic outbreaks of forest-defoliating insects has spurred much research, yet why such outbreaks occur remains unclear. Theoretical biologists argue that outbreaks are driven by specialist pathogens or parasitoids, because host-pathogen and host-parasitoid models show large-amplitude, long-period cycles resembling time series of outbreaks. Field biologists counter that outbreaks occur when generalist predators fail, because predation in low-density defoliator populations is usually high enough to prevent outbreaks. Neither explanation is sufficient, however, because the time between outbreaks in the data is far more variable than in host-pathogen and host-parasitoid models, and far shorter than in generalist-predator models. Here we show that insect outbreaks can be explained by a model that includes both a generalist predator and a specialist pathogen. In this host-pathogen-predator model, stochasticity causes defoliator densities to fluctuate erratically between an equilibrium maintained by the predator, and cycles driven by the pathogen. Outbreaks in this model occur at long but irregular intervals, matching the data. Our results suggest that explanations of insect outbreaks must go beyond classical models to consider interactions among multiple species.

Declining natural resources have led to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. Effective ridge-to-reef management requires improved understanding of land-sea linkages and decision-support tools to simultaneously evaluate the effects of terrestrial and marine drivers on coral reefs, mediated by anthropogenic activities. Although a few applications have linked the effects of land cover to coral reefs, these are too coarse in resolution to inform watershed-scale management for Pacific Islands. To address this gap, we developed a novel linked land-sea modeling framework based on local data, which coupled groundwater and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution, to determine the effects of terrestrial drivers (groundwater and nutrients), mediated by human activities (land cover/use), and marine drivers (waves, geography, and habitat) on coral reefs. We applied this framework in two ‘ridge-to-reef’ systems (Hā‘ena and Ka‘ūpūlehu) subject to different natural disturbance regimes, located in the Hawaiian Archipelago. Our results indicated that coral reefs in Ka‘ūpūlehu are coral-dominated with many grazers and scrapers due to low rainfall and wave power. While coral reefs in Hā‘ena are dominated by crustose coralline algae with many grazers and less scrapers due to high rainfall and wave power. In general, Ka‘ūpūlehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Hā‘ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power. However, the shallow and wave sheltered back-reef areas of Hā‘ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes, are also vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching. Anthropogenic sources of nutrients located upstream from these vulnerable areas are relevant locations for nutrient mitigation, such as cesspool upgrades. In this study, we located coral reefs vulnerable to land-based nutrients and linked them to priority areas to manage sources of human-derived nutrients, thereby demonstrating how this framework can inform place-based ridge-to-reef management.

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has recently realigned its research enterprise around the concept of sustainability. Scientists from across multiple disciplines have a role to play in contributing the information, methods, and tools needed to more fully understand the long-term impacts of decisions on the social and economic sustainability of communities. Success will depend on a shift in thinking to integrate, organize, and prioritize research within a systems context. We used the Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework as a basis for integrating social, cultural, and economic aspects of environmental and human health into a single framework. To make the framework broadly applicable to sustainability research planning, we provide a hierarchical system of DPSIR keywords and guidelines for use as a communication tool. The applicability of the integrated framework was first tested on a public health issue (asthma disparities) for purposes of discussion. We then applied the framework at a science planning meeting to identify opportunities for sustainable and healthy communities research. We conclude that an integrated systems framework has many potential roles in science planning, including identifying key issues, visualizing interactions within the system, identifying research gaps, organizing information, developing computational models, and identifying indicators.

Laboratory microcosms were used to assess whether tadpole shrimp, Triops sp., affect community structure of other native macroinvertebrates in playa lakes of the Southern High Plains of Texas. Removal of tadpole shrimp shortly after hatching reduced abundances of many taxa, and decreased subsequent taxonomic richness and diversity. For many invertebrates, the presence of tadpole shrimp in low numbers had a positive effect on mean abundance. Direct effects of tadpole shrimp include the reduction of prey species abundance, which in turn may alter biotic interactions among other taxa. Indirect effects include physical modification of the environment during foraging through surface sediments. Results suggest that tadpole shrimp may be a key species controlling structure of macroinvertebrate communities in playa lakes.