The fi ndings in this article defy the common assumption that the free market, including the formation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in Southeast Asia, is correlated with the creation of a spillover and complex interdependency, reducing confl icts between countries in the region. This fi nding could well contribute as a theory in the academic sphere and as policies in the practical world. The author uses a theoretical framework of structural realism to explain the potential confl ict between countries of the Southeast Asian region. There are four potential confl ict situations among countries in the implementation of AEC: fi rstly, the structure of economic disparity. This situation would construct an identity of in-group -out-group or "us" versus "them" in the context of who gains and loses in the AEC. Secondly, similarity of natural resources. This fact led the Southeast Asian countries to compete and create standardization wherein each party is in hostile competition to claim valid fi ndings and arguments associated with eff orts to reduce or stop the fl ow of imports into their respective countries. Thirdly, competition among businesses, in which AEC constructed free market could potentially provoke the emergence of regional trading cartel. Fourthly, the structure of military power. Historical records show that any economic growth occurring in a country will be accompanied by the growth of its military budget. Keywords:potential confl ict between countries; the ASEAN Economic Community; structural realism. Abstrak Temuan dalam artikel ini menentang asumsi umum bahwa pasar bebas, termasuk pembentukan Komunitas Ekonomi ASEAN (AEC) di
Huge of economy growth push China expands energy and market, technically China revival new Silk Path through the One Belt One Road Policy (OBOR) initiative. With OBOR China drives the Rise of New Eurasia and make this region become alternatives for US-Europe trade relations. On other hand Indonesia with Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) in China perspectives especially and Eurasia generally has very strategic geographical position for at least reinforce New Eurasia through sea line and as the Eurasia liaison with the world (mainly US, Japan and Australia that politically opposite with China interest). In this new global power structure as implications from the Rise of China, Indonesia has opportunity and challenge mainly as middle power. On one hand Indonesia find at least: (1) market (new Eurasia) with cheap access because the OBOR and GMF line; (2) push its economic growing as consequences of market expansion; (3) find its role as Sea Power so that push its bargaining position in international area; on other hand Indonesia also become (1) trade destinations from others countries mainly China easier; so that (2) dependence toward China politically. In this new world power structure Indonesia must has ability for stand on its position as state that has free active foreign policy. Indonesia should be (1) push productivity; (2) able to exploit Eurasia's new market; (3) reinforce its position between two great power (China and US); and (4) create the Rise of Indonesia.
One of the contemporary international problems faced by the Governments in the world is asylum seekers and refugees. As an archipelagic country located at the junction of two oceans and two continents, Indonesia is a target for asylum seekers and refugees worldwide. This is certainly a challenge for Jokowi's foreign policy. In this context, Presidential Regulation/ Peraturan Pemerintah Nomer 125, 2016 concerning Handling of Foreign Refugees was issued. Through a qualitative descriptive method with data analysis techniques, this study came to the conclusion that the policy was issued due to at least two factors, namely: (1) as a temporary substitute for the 1951 and 1962 UN Conventions which had not been ratified; (2) The strengthening of international norms in the form of human rights. Keywords: International Norms, Asylum Seekers, Refugees, Perpres No 125 Tahun 2016 Abstraksi Salah satu masalah internasional kontemporer yang dihadapi Pemerintah Indonesia adalah Pencari Suaka dan Pengungsi. Sebagai negara kepulauan yang berada di persimpangan dua samudera dan dua benua, Indonesia menjadi sasaran pencari suaka dan pengungsi dunia. Hal itu tentu menjadi tantangan tersediri bagi kebijakan luar negeri Jokowi. Dalam konteks tersebut Peraturan Presiden 125 tahun 2016 tentang Penanganan Pengungsi dari Luar diterbitkan. Melalui metode deskripstif kualitatif dengan teknik analisa data, penelitian ini sampai pada kesimpulan bahwa kebijakan Perpres tersebut diterbitkan karena sedikitnya dua faktor, yaitu: (1) sebagai pengganti sementara Konvesi PBB 1951 dan 1962 yang belum diratifikasi; (2) Menguatnya norma internasional yang berupa hak asasi manusia. Kata Kunci: Norma Internasional, Pencari Suaka, Pengungsi, Perpres No 125 tahun 2016
Economic growth and arms race are interesting phenomena in Southeast Asia. Contrary to the view of a majority of scholars that arms race has generally negative impact on economic growth, this article argues that the arms race between China and the United States in the South China Sea helps to create a balance of power, which reinforces regional political stability and further drives economic growth. Thus, in an indirect way, the arms race aids economic growth in Southeast Asia. Elaborating on a discourse that arms race is a natural reality in international politics which must be responded to by a positive approach, this study aims to open a new space for debate and further research and offers a new perspective to understand the phenomenon.
Modelski's Long Cycle Theory influences the way scholars understand the process of world political history, including the continuation of the dynamics of world politics in the future. Modelski and his scholars suggest that the facts of the 500-year history of global politics reflect the Long Cycle pattern in which a new great power emerges every 100 years after a global war. This theory is corrected by the historical facts of China's rise in the last 40 years which proves the truth of the Long Cycle Theory on the one hand but at the same time also corrects the theory. New facts tell us that the rise of China as a new great power was not accompanied by a global war as Modelski and his supporting scholars explain. The results of this study tell us that the Long Cycle of global politics needs to be corrected.Keywords: Rise of China, great power, global war, long cycle theory.AbstrakTeori Siklus Panjang Modelski berpengaruh pada cara para sarjana memahami proses sejarah politik dunia, termasuk keberlangsungan dinamika politik dunia selanjutnya. Modelski dan para cendekiawan pendukungnya menginduksikan bahwa fakta sejarah 500 tahun politik global mencerminkan pola Siklus Panjang di mana sebuah kekuatan besar baru muncul setiap 100 tahun setelah sebuah perang global. Teori ini dikoreksi oleh fakta sejarah kebangkitan China dalam 40 tahun terakhir yang membuktikan kebenaran Teori Siklus Panjang di satu sisi tetapi pada saat yang sama juga mengoreksi teori tersebut. Fakta baru memberitahu kita bahwa kebangkitan Cina sebagai kekuatan besar baru tidak disertai dengan perang global sebagaimana penjelasan Modelski dan para sarjaba pendukungnya. Hasil penelitian ini memberi tahu kita bahwa Siklus Panjang politik global perlu dikoreksi.Kata kunci: Kebangkitan Tiongkok, kekuatan besar, perang global, teori siklus panjang.
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