SummaryBackgroundIntroduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has substantially reduced disease burden due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. However, PCVs are among the most expensive vaccines, hindering their introduction in some settings and threatening sustainability in others. We aimed to assess the effect and cost-effectiveness of introduction of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) vaccination globally.MethodsWe assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of PCV13 introduction by integrating two models: an ecological model (a parsimonious, mechanistic model validated with data from post-seven-valent PCV introduction in 13 high-income settings) to predict the effect of PCV on childhood invasive pneumococcal disease, and a decision-tree model to predict a range of clinical presentations and economic outcomes under vaccination and no-vaccination strategies. The models followed 30 birth cohorts up to age 5 years in 180 countries from 2015 to 2045. One-way scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were done to explore model uncertainties.FindingsWe estimate that global PCV13 use could prevent 0·399 million child deaths (95% credible interval 0·208 million to 0·711 million) and 54·6 million disease episodes (51·8 million to 58·1 million) annually. Global vaccine costs (in 2015 international dollars) of $15·5 billion could be partially offset by health-care savings of $3·19 billion (2·62 billion to 3·92 billion) and societal cost savings of $2·64 billion (2·13 billion to 3·28 billion). PCV13 use is probably cost-effective in all six UN regions. The 71 countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, account for 83% of PCV13-preventable deaths but only 18% of global vaccination costs. The expected cost of PCV vaccination globally is around $16 billion per year.InterpretationOur findings highlight the value of Gavi's support for PCV introduction in low-income countries and of efforts to improve the affordability of PCVs in countries not eligible for, or transitioning from, Gavi support.FundingWorld Health Organization; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Our findings highlight a combination of misperceptions about influenza vaccination and cognitive biases at the individual level, and challenges at the institutional level limiting uptake. Findings indicate an urgent need to provide targeted education and communication. Rather than providing more data, we recommend a widely-disseminated, locally-compiled synthesis addressing specific concerns of hesitant HCWs. Tailoring interventions to specific vocational groups should be considered. Institutional norms and culture may have a powerful influence in setting default behaviours: more effort is needed in improving influenza vaccine promotion and priority at some institutions, integrating vaccine-related communication with other infection control communication and addressing influenza vaccine hesitancy among doctors as a priority. Finally, further study of strategies to address cognitive biases affecting influenza vaccine acceptance in Singapore is desirable.
BackgroundDrug resistance is a growing challenge to tuberculosis (TB) control worldwide, but particularly salient to countries such as Myanmar, where the health system is fragmented across the public and private sector. A recent systematic review has identified a critical lack of evidence for local policymaking, particularly in relation to drivers of drug-resistance that could be the target of preventative efforts. To address this gap from a health systems perspective, our study investigates the healthcare-seeking behavior and preferences of recently diagnosed patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), focusing on the use of private versus public healthcare providers.MethodsThe study was conducted in ten townships across Yangon with high DR-TB burden. Patients newly-diagnosed with DR-TB by GeneXpert were enrolled, and data on healthcare-seeking behavior and socio-economic characteristics were collected from patient records and interviews. A descriptive analysis of healthcare-seeking behavior was followed by the investigation of relationships between socio-economic factors and type of provider visited upon first feeling unwell, through univariate logistic regressions.ResultsOf 202 participants, only 8% reported first seeking care at public facilities, while 88% reported seeking care at private facilities upon first feeling unwell. Participants aged 25–34 (Odds Ratio = 0.33 [0.12–0.95]) and males (Odds Ratio = 0.39 [0.20–0.75]) were less likely to visit a private clinic or hospital than those aged 18–24 and females, respectively. In contrast, participants with higher income were more likely to utilize private providers. Prior to DR-TB diagnosis, 86% of participants took medications from private providers. After DR-TB diagnosis, only 7% of participants continued to take medications from private providers.ConclusionIn urban Myanmar, most patients shifted to being managed exclusively in the public sector after being formally diagnosed with DR-TB. However, since the vast majority of DR-TB patients first visited private providers in the period leading to diagnosis, related issues such as unregulated quality of care, potential delays to diagnosis, and lack of care continuity may greatly influence the emergence of drug-resistance. A greater understanding of the health system and these healthcare-seeking behaviors may simultaneously strengthen TB control programmes and reduce government and out-of-pocket expenditures on the management of DR-TB.
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