BackgroundTo cope with rising demand for healthcare services in Singapore, Regional Health Systems (RHS) comprising of health and social care providers across care settings were set up to integrate service delivery. Tasked with providing care for the western region, in 2012, the National University Health System (NUHS) – RHS developed a transitional care program for elderly patients with complex healthcare needs who consumed high levels of hospital resources. Through needs assessment, development of personalized care plans and care coordination, the program aimed to: (i) improve quality of care, (ii) reduce hospital utilization, and (iii) reduce healthcare-related costs. In this study, recognizing the need for process evaluation in conjunction with outcome evaluation, we aim to evaluate the implementation fidelity of the NUHS-RHS transitional care program to explain the outcomes of the program and to inform further development of (similar) programs.MethodsGuided by the modified version of the Conceptual Framework for Implementation Fidelity (CFIF), adherence and moderating factors influencing implementation were assessed using non-participatory observations, reviews of medical records and program databases.ResultsMost (10 out of 14) components of the program were found to be implemented with low or moderate level of fidelity. The frequency or duration of the program components were observed to vary based on the needs of users, availability of care coordinators (CC) and their confidence. Variation in fidelity was influenced predominantly by: (1) complexity of the program, (2) extent of facilitation through guiding protocols, (3) facilitation of program implementation through CCs’ level of training and confidence, (4) evolving healthcare participant responsiveness, and (5) the context of suboptimal capability among community providers.ConclusionThis is the first study to assess the context-specific implementation process of a transitional care program in the context of Southeast Asia. It provides important insights to facilitate further development and scaling up of transitional care programs within the NUHS-RHS and beyond. Our findings highlight the need for greater focus on engaging both healthcare providers and users, training CCs to equip them with the relevant skills required for their jobs, and building the capability of the community providers to implement such programs.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-3980-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Transitioning into parenthood can be stressful for new parents, especially with the lack of continuity of care from health care professionals during the postpartum period. Short hospital stays limit the availability of support and time parents need to be well equipped with parenting and infant care skills. Poor parental adjustment may, in turn, lead to negative parental outcomes and adversely affect the child’s development. For the family’s future well-being, and to facilitate a smoother transition into parenthood, there is a need for easily accessible, technology-based educational programs to support parents during the crucial perinatal period. Objective This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of a technology-based supportive educational parenting program (SEPP) on parenting outcomes during the perinatal period in couples. Methods A randomized, single-blinded, parallel-armed, controlled trial was conducted. The study recruited 236 parents (118 couples) from an antenatal clinic of a tertiary hospital in Singapore. Eligible parents were randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=118) or the control group (n=118). The SEPP is based on Bandura’s self-efficacy theory and Bowlby’s theory of attachment. Components of the intervention include 2 telephone-based educational sessions (1 antenatal and 1 immediately postnatal) and a mobile health app follow-up for 1 month. The control group only received routine perinatal care provided by the hospital. Outcome measures including parenting self-efficacy (PSE), parental bonding, perceived social support, parenting satisfaction, postnatal depression (PND), and anxiety were measured using reliable and valid instruments. Data were collected over 6 months at 4 time points: during pregnancy (third trimester), 2 days postpartum, 1 month postpartum, and 3 months postpartum. Outcomes were standardized using baseline means and SDs. Linear mixed models were used to compare the groups for postpartum changes in the outcome variables. Results The intervention group showed significantly better outcome scores than the control group from baseline to 3 months postpartum for PSE (mean difference, MD, 0.37; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.68; P= .02), parental bonding (MD −1.32; 95% CI −1.89 to −0.75; P <.001), self-perceived social support (MD 0.69; 95% CI 0.18 to 1.19; P= .01), parenting satisfaction (MD 1.40; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.93; P <.001), and PND (MD −0.91; 95% CI −1.34 to −0.49; P <.001). Postnatal anxiety (PNA) scores of the intervention group were only significantly better after adjusting for covariates (MD −0.82; 95% CI −1.15 to −0.49; P <.001). Conclusions The technology-based SEPP is effective in enhancing parental bonding, PSE, perceived social support and parental satisfaction, and in red...

ObjectiveAn unmet need exists for a non-invasive biomarker assay to aid gastric cancer diagnosis. We aimed to develop a serum microRNA (miRNA) panel for identifying patients with all stages of gastric cancer from a high-risk population.DesignWe conducted a three-phase, multicentre study comprising 5248 subjects from Singapore and Korea. Biomarker discovery and verification phases were done through comprehensive serum miRNA profiling and multivariant analysis of 578 miRNA candidates in retrospective cohorts of 682 subjects. A clinical assay was developed and validated in a prospective cohort of 4566 symptomatic subjects who underwent endoscopy. Assay performance was confirmed with histological diagnosis and compared with Helicobacter pylori (HP) serology, serum pepsinogens (PGs), ‘ABC’ method, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cancer antigen 19–9 (CA19-9). Cost-effectiveness was analysed using a Markov decision model.ResultsWe developed a clinical assay for detection of gastric cancer based on a 12-miRNA biomarker panel. The 12-miRNA panel had area under the curve (AUC)=0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.95) and AUC=0.92 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.96) in the discovery and verification cohorts, respectively. In the prospective study, overall sensitivity was 87.0% (95% CI 79.4% to 92.5%) at specificity of 68.4% (95% CI 67.0% to 69.8%). AUC was 0.848 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88), higher than HP serology (0.635), PG 1/2 ratio (0.641), PG index (0.576), ABC method (0.647), CEA (0.576) and CA19-9 (0.595). The number needed to screen is 489 annually. It is cost-effective for mass screening relative to current practice (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio=US$44 531/quality-of-life year).ConclusionWe developed and validated a serum 12-miRNA biomarker assay, which may be a cost-effective risk assessment for gastric cancer.Trial registration numberThis study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (Registration number: NCT04329299).

SummaryBackgroundIntroduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has substantially reduced disease burden due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. However, PCVs are among the most expensive vaccines, hindering their introduction in some settings and threatening sustainability in others. We aimed to assess the effect and cost-effectiveness of introduction of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) vaccination globally.MethodsWe assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of PCV13 introduction by integrating two models: an ecological model (a parsimonious, mechanistic model validated with data from post-seven-valent PCV introduction in 13 high-income settings) to predict the effect of PCV on childhood invasive pneumococcal disease, and a decision-tree model to predict a range of clinical presentations and economic outcomes under vaccination and no-vaccination strategies. The models followed 30 birth cohorts up to age 5 years in 180 countries from 2015 to 2045. One-way scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were done to explore model uncertainties.FindingsWe estimate that global PCV13 use could prevent 0·399 million child deaths (95% credible interval 0·208 million to 0·711 million) and 54·6 million disease episodes (51·8 million to 58·1 million) annually. Global vaccine costs (in 2015 international dollars) of $15·5 billion could be partially offset by health-care savings of $3·19 billion (2·62 billion to 3·92 billion) and societal cost savings of $2·64 billion (2·13 billion to 3·28 billion). PCV13 use is probably cost-effective in all six UN regions. The 71 countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, account for 83% of PCV13-preventable deaths but only 18% of global vaccination costs. The expected cost of PCV vaccination globally is around $16 billion per year.InterpretationOur findings highlight the value of Gavi's support for PCV introduction in low-income countries and of efforts to improve the affordability of PCVs in countries not eligible for, or transitioning from, Gavi support.FundingWorld Health Organization; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Our findings highlight a combination of misperceptions about influenza vaccination and cognitive biases at the individual level, and challenges at the institutional level limiting uptake. Findings indicate an urgent need to provide targeted education and communication. Rather than providing more data, we recommend a widely-disseminated, locally-compiled synthesis addressing specific concerns of hesitant HCWs. Tailoring interventions to specific vocational groups should be considered. Institutional norms and culture may have a powerful influence in setting default behaviours: more effort is needed in improving influenza vaccine promotion and priority at some institutions, integrating vaccine-related communication with other infection control communication and addressing influenza vaccine hesitancy among doctors as a priority. Finally, further study of strategies to address cognitive biases affecting influenza vaccine acceptance in Singapore is desirable.

IntroductionThe lack of understanding of how complex integrated care programmes achieve their outcomes due to the lack of acceptable methods leads to difficulties in the development, implementation, adaptation and scaling up of similar interventions. In this study, we evaluate an integrated care network, the National University Health System (NUHS) Regional Health System (RHS), consisting of acute hospitals, step down care, primary care providers, social services and community partners using a theory-driven realist evaluation approach. This study aims to examine how and for whom the NUHS-RHS works to improve healthcare utilisations, outcomes, care experiences and reduce healthcare costs. By using a realist approach that balances the needs of context-specific evaluation with international comparability, this study carries the potential to address current research gaps.Methods and analysisThis evaluation will be conducted in three research phases: (1) development of initial programme theory (IPT) underlying the NUHS-RHS; (2) testing of programme theory using empirical data; and (3) refinement of IPT. IPT was elicited and developed through reviews of programme documents, informal discussions and in-depth interviews with relevant stakeholders. Then, a convergent parallel mixed method study will be conducted to assess context (C), mechanisms (M) and outcomes (O) to test the IPT. Findings will then be analysed according to the realist evaluation formula of CMO in which findings on the context, mechanisms will be used to explain the outcomes. Finally, based on findings gathered, IPT will be refined to highlight how to improve the NUHS-RHS by detailing what works (outcome), as well as how (mechanisms) and under what conditions (context).Ethics and disseminationThe National Healthcare Group, Singapore, Domain Specific Review Board reviewed and approved this study protocol. Study results will be published in international peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences and internally to NUHS-RHS and Ministry of Health, Singapore.

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BackgroundIt is essential to study post-stroke healthcare utilization trajectories from a stroke patient caregiver dyadic perspective to improve healthcare delivery, practices and eventually improve long-term outcomes for stroke patients. However, literature addressing this area is currently limited. Addressing this gap, our study described the trajectory of healthcare service utilization by stroke patients and associated costs over 1-year post-stroke and examined the association with caregiver identity and clinical stroke factors.MethodsPatient and caregiver variables were obtained from a prospective cohort, while healthcare data was obtained from the national claims database. Generalized estimating equation approach was used to get the population average estimates of healthcare utilization and cost trend across 4 quarters post-stroke.ResultsFive hundred ninety-two stroke patient and caregiver dyads were available for current analysis. The highest utilization occurred in the first quarter post-stroke across all service types and decreased with time. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of hospitalization decreased by 51, 40, 11 and 1% for patients having spouse, sibling, child and others as caregivers respectively when compared with not having a caregiver (p = 0.017). Disability level modified the specialist outpatient clinic usage trajectory with increasing difference between mildly and severely disabled sub-groups across quarters. Stroke type and severity modified the primary care cost trajectory with expected cost estimates differing across second to fourth quarters for moderately-severe ischemic (IRR: 1.67, 1.74, 1.64; p = 0.003), moderately-severe non-ischemic (IRR: 1.61, 3.15, 2.44; p = 0.001) and severe non-ischemic (IRR: 2.18, 4.92, 4.77; p = 0.032) subgroups respectively, compared to first quarter.ConclusionHighlighting the quarterly variations, we reported distinct utilization trajectories across subgroups based on clinical characteristics. Caregiver availability reducing hospitalization supports revisiting caregiver’s role as potential hidden workforce, incentivizing their efforts by designing socially inclusive bundled payment models for post-acute stroke care and adopting family-centered clinical care practices.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3696-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.