This paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration analysis in estimating the 'virtual exchange rate' (VER) in India. The VER would have prevailed if the unconstrained import demand were equal to the constraint imposed due to foreign exchange rationing and the VER is used to approximate the 'price' of rationed foreign exchange reserves. We highlight the shortcomings of the existing literature in approximating equilibrium exchange rates in a less developed country such as India and propose the VER approach for equilibrium rates, which uses information from an estimated structural model. In this relationship, black market real exchange rate (E U ) is a dependent variable and real official exchange rates (E O ), the ratio of the foreign (r*) to the domestic (r) interest rate (I), and official forex reserves (Q) are explanatory variables. In our estimation, the VERs are higher than E O by about 10% in the short-run and 16% in the long-run.

This paper presents a critical survey of theories of migration, their welfare and policy implications and their empirical relevance. We also develop some extensions to the theory beginning with the Hams and Todaro (HT) model. In particular, the HT model is extended to examine risk averse behaviour within families where the migration of members of families serves to diversify risk. The welfare implications of the individual migration decision and government intervention in the form of employment subsidies are examined. Recent evidence on international migration is presented. It is shown that migration does not flow automatically in response to wage differentials. Characteristics of migrants and the process of self-selection are found to be important determinants of the rate of migration.

This paper comprehensively tests the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Malaysia for the period 1955 - 90, using cointegration and causality testing based on Hsiao's synthesis of the Granger test and Akaike's minimum final prediction error criterion. The results provide support for the ELG hypothesis; aggregate exports Granger-cause real GDP and non-export GDP. This relationship is found to be driven by manufactured exports rather than by traditional exports.

No abstract

No abstract

In this paper, we modify the Harris-Todaro model of migration to incorporate the impact of human capital, housing stock and the availability of publicly provided goods like health care and road provision in order to analyse the determinants of migration in different regions of Poland. We apply the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation [SURE] model to investigate the data. Our results show that GDP per capita, unemployment and distance have a strong effect on regional migration in this country. Human capital is also an important explanatory factor as is the provision of key publicly provided facilities such as roads. The lack of housing in Poland is important in explaining the low levels of internal migration. JEL Classification: F 22, O15, J61.

No abstract

No abstract