In this paper, we have estimated vector autoregression (VAR), Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and vector error-correction models (VECMs) using annual time-series data of South Korea for 1950-94. We find evidence supporting the view that growth of real per-capita income has been aided by income, investment and export growth, as well as government spending and exchange rate policies. The VECMs provide better forecasts of growth than do the VAR and BVAR models for both short-term and long-term predictions.
This study is concerned about foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth across the world for the period of 1991-2001. This article produces fresh empirical evidence on the relation between FDI and economic growth obtained from single-equation and simultaneous equation estimates for 140 countries using macro economic variables. The results indicate that a positive and statistically significant estimate of coefficient of FDI is obtained from single equation ordinary least squares method for real per-capita GDP regressions in all but one case. There exists a positive and statistically significant relation between the real per-capita GDP and FDI in the case of many countries but correlation coefficient between exports-GDP ratio and percentage FDI is found to be insignificant. Country risk rating and the telecommunications variables are significant in all the relevant regressions and correlation estimates.
This paper tests the hypothesis of difference stationarity of macro-economic time series against the alternative of trend stationarity, with and without allowing for possible structural breaks. The methodologies used are that of Dickey and Fuller familiarized by Nelson and Plosser, and that of dummy variables familiarized by Perron, including the Zivot and Andrews extension of Perron's tests. We have chosen 12 macro-economic variables in the Indian economy during the period 1900-1988 for this study. A study of this nature has not previously been undertaken for the Indian economy. The conventional Dickey-Fuller methodology without allowing for structural breaks cannot reject the unit root hypothesis (URH) for any series. Allowing for exogenous breaks in level and rate of growth in the years 1914, 1939 and 1951, Perron's tests reject the URH for three series after 1951, i.e. the year of introduction of economic planning in India. The Zivot and Andrews tests for endogenous breaks confirm the Perron tests and lead to the rejection of the URH for three more series.
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