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Abstract. Eleven strong Sumatran earthquakes, with their epicenter less than 550 km away from the Kototabang (KTB) geomagnetic station (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012), were studied to examine the occurrence of anomalous ultra-low frequency emissions (ULF-EM). Anomalous ULF signals, possibly associated with the earthquake's precursors, were determined by the Welch ratio S Z /S H at 0.06 Hz at the KTB station. These ULF anomalies were then compared with geomagnetic data observed from two reference stations in Darwin and Davao, to prevent misinterpretation of global geomagnetic disturbances as precursors. This study aims to analyze the relationship between earthquake magnitude and hypocenter radius, and seismic index against lead time during ULF-EM anomalies. We used the polarization ratio Welch method in terms of power spectrum density to evaluate the geomagnetic data by overlapping windows and applying fast Fourier transform (FFT). The results showed anomalous variations in onset and lead time, determined using the standard deviation controlling the S Z /S H power pattern. Our positive correlation between lead time of ULF emission and earthquake magnitude as well as between lead time and seismic index. It shows a negative correlation between hypocenter distances to KTB station against lead time.

In this study, we improved and adapted existing signal processing methods on vast geomagnetic field data to investigate the correlations between various earthquake properties and characteristics of possible geomagnetic precursors. The data from 10 magnetometer stations were utilized to detect precursory ultra-low frequency emission and estimate the source direction for 34 earthquakes occurring between the year 2007–2016 in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and South America regions. As a result, possible precursors of 20 earthquakes were identified (58.82% detection rate). Weak correlations were obtained when all precursors were considered. However, statistically significant and strong linear correlations (r ≥ 0.60, p < 0.05) were found when the precursors from two closely located stations in Japan (Onagawa (ONW) and Tohno (TNO)) were exclusively investigated. For these stations, it was found that the lead time of the precursor is strongly (or very strongly) correlated with the earthquake magnitude, the local seismicity index, and the hypocentral depth. In addition, the error percentage of the estimated direction showed a strong correlation with the hypocentral depth. It is concluded that, when the study area is restricted to a specific location, the earthquake properties are more likely to have correlations with several characteristics of the possible precursors.

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Based on historical records, Yogyakarta has a high seismic risk related to the earthquake events along active faults, such as the Opak and Merapi-Merbabu Faults. These faults were responsible for several destructive earthquakes in Yogyakarta City and its vicinity and caused fatalities and building damage in the area, e.g., the 2006 (Mw 6.3) Yogyakarta earthquake and earlier in 1943 and 1867. A previous study shows that the Opak Fault has a geodetic slip-rate of 5 mm/y and a potential magnitude Mw 6.6. In addition, the active Merapi-Merbabu Fault has a geodetic slip-rate of 1 mm/y and a potential magnitude Mw 6.6. We used scaling law relations of earthquake parameters and magnitude scenarios to estimate the recurrence time of each fault based on a kinematic model. Our results estimate that the earthquake return period (Tr) for the Opak Fault (Mw 6.6) is ∼162 years, the maximum intensity is ∼VII-VIII MMI scale, the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is ∼36 % g, and Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) is ∼ 30 cm/s for a 5 km hypocentral depth. In the meantime, the earthquake return period for the Merapi-Merbabu Fault (Mw 6.6) is estimated to be ∼810 years, the maximum intensity is ∼ VI-VII MMI, the PGA is ∼ 30-36 % g, and the PGV is ∼ 21-24 cm/s for a 5 km hypocentre depth. Both faults potentially produce destructive earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) in Yogyakarta City and its vicinity. Therefore, assessments of (paleo) earthquakes are needed of both the Opak Fault and the Merapi-Merbabu Fault to support the long-term earthquake hazard mitigation program.