An early warning system has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major components: (1) a susceptibility mapping and hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topographical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory, etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e., Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE. The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a factor of safety that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. In use, the land-surface "where" information will be integrated with the "when" rainfall triggers by the landslide prediction model to predict potential slope failures as a function of time and location. In this system, geomorphologic data are primarily based on 30-m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data, digital elevation model (DEM), and 1-km soil maps. Precipitation forcing comes from both satellite-based, real-time National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts. The system's prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and results show that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets in this prototype system enables us to further develop a regional, early warning tool in the future for predicting rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia.
Abstract. Landslides are one of the most widespread and commonly occurring natural hazards. In regions of high vulnerability, these complex hazards can cause significant negative social and economic impacts. Considering the worldwide susceptibility to landslides, it is necessary to establish a standard for early warning systems specific to landslide disaster risk reduction. This standard would provide guidance in conducting landslide detection, prediction, interpretation, and response. This paper proposes a new standard consisting of seven sub-systems for landslide early warning. These include risk assessment and mapping, dissemination and communication, establishment of the disaster preparedness and response team, development of an evacuation map, standardized operating procedures, installation of monitoring and warning services, and the building of local commitment to the operation and maintenance of the entire program. This paper details the global standard with an example of its application from Central Java, one of 20 landslide-prone provinces in Indonesia that have used this standard since 2012.
Floods are a major contributor to natural disasters in Sumatra. However, atmospheric conditions leading to floods are not well understood due, among other factors, to the lack of a complete record of floods. Here, the 5 year flood record for Sumatra derived from governmental reports, as well as from crowd-sourcing data, based on Twitter messages and local newspapers’ reports, is created and used to analyze atmospheric phenomena responsible for floods. It is shown, that for the majority of analyzed floods, convectively coupled Kelvin waves, large scale precipitation systems propagating at ∼12 m/s along the equator, play the critical role. While seasonal and intraseasonal variability can also create conditions favorable for flooding, the enhanced precipitation related to Kelvin waves was found in over 90% of flood events. In 30% of these events precipitation anomalies were attributed to Kelvin waves only. These results indicate the potential for increased predictability of flood risk.
Karanganyar and the surrounding area are situated in a dynamic volcanic arc region, where landslide frequently occurs during the rainy season. The rain-induced landslide disasters have been resulting in 65 fatalities and a substantial socioeconomical loss in last December 2007. Again, in early February 2009, 6 more people died, hundreds of people temporary evacuated and tens of houses damaged due to the rain-induced landslide. Accordingly, inter-disciplinary approach for geological, geotechnical and social investigations were undertaken with the goal for improving community resilience in the landslide vulnerable villages. Landslide hazard mapping and community-based landslide mitigation were conducted to reduce the risk of landslides. The hazard mapping was carried out based on the susceptibility assessment with respect to the conditions of slope inclination, types and engineering properties of lithology/soil as well as the types of landuse. All of those parameters were analyzed by applying weighing and scoring system which were calculated by semi qualitative approach (Analytical Hierarchical Process). It was found that the weathered andesitic-steep slope (steeper than 30o) was identified as the highest susceptible slope for rapid landslide, whilst the gentle colluvial slope with inter-stratification of tuffaceous clay-silt was found to be the susceptible slope for creeping. Finally, a programme for landslide risk reduction and control were developed with special emphasize on community-based landslide mitigation and early warning system. It should be highlighted that the social approach needs to be properly addressed in order to guarantee the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction.
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