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Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply.

Abstract. In contrast to stable inland systems, coastal landscape positions are dynamic, changing as shorelines migrate and storms alter topography. We define landscape position by distance to ocean shoreline and elevation above sea level, two metrics that integrate a suite of environmental and biotic factors. As shoreline and elevation change, suitability of a geo-referenced position for a given plant species may also change. The objectives of our study were to use two methods for measuring landscape position (GPS and hyperspectral/light detection and ranging or LIDAR) to develop habitat polygons, compare habitat polygons for five species representing several adaptive strategies, and illustrate change in landscape position due to migrating shoreline for a Virginia, USA barrier island. Habitat polygons for each species were distinct, represented several growth forms or functional groups, and were indicative of tolerances to biotic and abiotic stresses. The habitat polygon for Cakile edentula (annual forb) was relatively small, indicating narrow habitat requirements for the strand environment. Cirsium horridulum (biennial forb), with succulent shoots and roots, occurred on dunes where water is most limiting. For the dunebuilding grass, Ammophila breviligulata, as distance from shoreline increased, minimum elevation also increased. Two woody species occurred across the entire island; however, Morella cerifera (N-fixing shrub), was limited to mesic swales whereas Juniperus virginiana (evergreen tree), with the largest habitat polygon, occurred on both dunes and swales. For a geo-referenced point on the north end of Hog Island, distance to shoreline increased from the shoreline to 1100 m inland over 139 years. In contrast, the geo-referenced point on the eroding portion of the island decreased from 1700 m to 120 m from the ocean shoreline over the same time period. Where sea level rise and storms are expected to alter shorelines and island topography, generation of habitat polygons from hyperspectral and LIDAR imagery provide rapid assessment of potential effects on species distribution patterns at local and regional scales. Habitat polygons have broad applicability beyond coastal systems and may contribute to a rapid assessment or identification of vulnerability for species as climate patterns shift through time.

Infestation of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) with hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) has caused widespread mortality of this key canopy species throughout much of the southern Appalachian Mountains in the past decade. Because eastern hemlock is heavily concentrated in riparian habitats, maintains a dense canopy, and has an evergreen leaf habit, its loss is expected to have a major impact on forest processes, including transpiration (E(t)). Our goal was to estimate changes in stand-level E(t) since HWA infestation, and predict future effects of forest regeneration on forest E(t) in declining eastern hemlock stands where hemlock represented 50-60% of forest basal area. We used a combination of community surveys, sap flux measurements, and empirical models relating sap flux-scaled leaf-level transpiration (E(L)) to climate to estimate the change in E(t) after hemlock mortality and forecast how forest E(t) will change in the future in response to eastern hemlock loss. From 2004 to 2011, eastern hemlock mortality reduced annual forest E(t) by 22% and reduced winter E(t) by 74%. As hemlock mortality increased, growth of deciduous tree species--especially sweet birch (Betula lenta L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), and the evergreen understory shrub rosebay rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum L.)--also increased, and these species will probably dominate post-hemlock riparian forests. All of these species have higher daytime E(L) rates than hemlock, and replacement of hemlock with species that have less conservative transpiration rates will result in rapid recovery of annual stand E(t). Further, we predict that annual stand E(t) will eventually surpass E(t) levels observed before hemlock was infested with HWA. This long-term increase in forest E(t) may eventually reduce stream discharge, especially during the growing season. However, the dominance of deciduous species in the canopy will result in a permanent reduction in winter E(t) and possible increase in winter stream discharge. The effects of hemlock die-off and replacement with deciduous species will have a significant impact on the hydrologic flux of forest transpiration, especially in winter. These results highlight the impact that invasive species can have on landscape-level ecosystem fluxes.

There is increasing interest in the changes in ecosystem services that accompany the conversion of grasslands to shrub-dominated communities. Shrub structure and associated effects on the light environment may be especially important in affecting productivity and diversity. Leaf-area index (LAI) and understory light levels of Morella cerifera shrub thickets were assessed on Hog Island, Virginia, USA, at four sites along a soil chronosequence. LAI was estimated from annual leaf litter, with allometric models relating stem diameter to leaf area, with a portable integrating radiometer (LI-COR LAI-2000), and from photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) using the Beer-Lambert law. For the two youngest thickets, LAI estimates from leaf litter (approximately 10.0) approached levels often associated with tropical rain forest. Allometric models estimated LAI values at 9.8 and 12.5 for the same thickets. High LAI in thickets also results in high light attenuation. Light levels within thickets were as low as 0.7% of above-canopy PAR in the youngest thicket. These data suggest that M. cerifera shrub thickets have a very high potential for annual net primary production. Furthermore, extreme modification of the light environment, coupled with heavy shrub litter fall, may exclude potential competitors during thicket establishment and rapidly alter community structure and ecosystem function.

Increasing air temperature is expected to extend growing season length in temperate, broadleaf forests, leading to potential increases in evapotranspiration and net carbon uptake. However, other key processes affecting water and carbon cycles are also highly temperature-dependent. Warmer temperatures may result in higher ecosystem carbon loss through respiration and higher potential evapotranspiration through increased atmospheric demand for water. Thus, the net effects of a warming planet are uncertain and highly dependent on local climate and vegetation. We analyzed five years of data from the Coweeta eddy covariance tower in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, USA, a highly productive region that has historically been underrepresented in flux observation networks. We examined how leaf phenology and climate affect water and carbon cycling in a mature forest in one of the wettest biomes in North America. Warm temperatures in early 2012 caused leaf-out to occur two weeks earlier than in cooler years and led to higher seasonal carbon uptake. However, these warmer temperatures also drove higher winter ecosystem respiration, offsetting much of the springtime carbon gain. Interannual variability in net carbon uptake was high (147 to 364 g C m −2 y −1), but unrelated to growing season length. Instead, years with warmer growing seasons had 10% higher respiration and sequestered ~40% less carbon than cooler years. In contrast, annual evapotranspiration was relatively consistent among years (coefficient of variation = 4%) despite large differences in precipitation (17%, range = 800 mm). Transpiration by the evergreen understory likely helped to compensate for phenologically-driven differences in canopy transpiration. The increasing frequency of high summer temperatures is expected to have a greater effect on respiration than growing season length, reducing forest carbon storage.

Expansion of shrubs into grasslands is often accompanied by a reduction in understory light and an associated reduction of shade-intolerant species. However, effects of specific canopy architectural characteristics on the light environment under shrub thickets are unknown. Our objective was to determine what characteristics of canopy architecture most influence understory light in monospecific shrub thickets. We quantified understory light and canopy architecture for five shrub species in the eastern United States that have a history of expansion, and we used multiple regression to determine which canopy characteristics best predicted light attenuation and relative contribution of sunflecks. Measurements included leaf angle, leaf azimuth, branch bifurcation ratio, leaf area index (LAI), canopy depth (the vertical distance from the bottommost leaf to the top of the canopy), and leaf area density (LAD) as well as understory photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). The best predictor of light attenuation and the occurrence of sunflecks for all species was canopy depth. Multiple leaf and plant-level traits were correlated with canopy depth but not with LAI or LAD. The invasive shrub Elaeagnus umbellata had the lowest understory light levels of the species examined although LAI values for Morella cerifera and Rhododendron maximum were higher. Branch bifurcation ratios for E. umbellata were significantly higher than for other species and this likely contributed to the differences in light attenuation and suppression of sunflecks. The potential of shrubs to intercept light is primarily dependent on vertical distribution of leaves in the canopy which is itself correlated with fine-scale, species-specific variations in leaf display.