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BACKGROUND The overall age-standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research. METHODS Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to estimate the number of cancers (all sites) resulting from changes in population risk, age, and size. The authors projected to 2020 nationwide age-standardized incidence rates and cases (including the top 23 cancers). RESULTS Since 1975, incident cases increased among white individuals, primarily caused by an aging white population, and among black individuals, primarily caused by an increasing black population. Between 2010 and 2020, it is expected that overall incidence rates (proxy for risk) will decrease slightly among black men and stabilize in other groups. By 2020, the authors predict annual cancer cases (all races, all sites) to increase among men by 24.1% (−3.2% risk and 27.3% age/growth) to >1 million cases, and by 20.6% among women (1.2% risk and 19.4% age/growth) to >900,000 cases. The largest increases are expected for melanoma (white individuals); cancers of the prostate, kidney, liver, and urinary bladder in males; and the lung, breast, uterus, and thyroid in females. CONCLUSIONS Overall, the authors predict cancer incidence rates/risk to stabilize for the majority of the population; however, they expect the number of cancer cases to increase by >20%. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer.

This study provides estimates of the economic cost of intimate partner violence perpetrated against women in the US, including expenditures for medical care and mental health services, and lost productivity from injury and premature death. The analysis uses national survey data, including the National Violence Against Women Survey and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, to estimate costs for 1995. Intimate partner violence against women cost $5.8 billion dollars (95% confidence interval: $3.9 to $7.7 billion) in 1995, including $320 million ($136 to $503 million) for rapes, $4.2 billion ($2.4 to $6.1 billion) for physical assault, $342 million ($235 to $449 million) for stalking, and $893 million ($840 to $946 million) for murders. Updated to 2003 dollars, costs would total over $8.3 billion. Intimate partner violence is costly in the US. The potential savings from efforts to reduce this violence are substantial. More comprehensive data are needed to refine cost estimates and monitor costs over time.

IntroductionHeart disease and cancer are the first and second leading causes of death in the United States. Age-standardized death rates (risk) have declined since the 1960s for heart disease and for cancer since the 1990s, whereas the overall number of heart disease deaths declined and cancer deaths increased. We analyzed mortality data to evaluate and project the effect of risk reduction, population growth, and aging on the number of heart disease and cancer deaths to the year 2020.MethodsWe used mortality data, population estimates, and population projections to estimate and predict heart disease and cancer deaths from 1969 through 2020 and to apportion changes in deaths resulting from population risk, growth, and aging.ResultsWe predicted that from 1969 through 2020, the number of heart disease deaths would decrease 21.3% among men (–73.9% risk, 17.9% growth, 34.7% aging) and 13.4% among women (–73.3% risk, 17.1% growth, 42.8% aging) while the number of cancer deaths would increase 91.1% among men (–33.5% risk, 45.6% growth, 79.0% aging) and 101.1% among women (–23.8% risk, 48.8% growth, 76.0% aging). We predicted that cancer would become the leading cause of death around 2016, although sex-specific crossover years varied.ConclusionRisk of death declined more steeply for heart disease than cancer, offset the increase in heart disease deaths, and partially offset the increase in cancer deaths resulting from demographic changes over the past 4 decades. If current trends continue, cancer will become the leading cause of death by 2020.

Background To locate online health information, Internet users typically use a search engine, such as Yahoo! or Google. We studied Yahoo! search activity related to the 23 most common cancers in the United States.Objective The objective was to test three potential correlates of Yahoo! cancer search activity—estimated cancer incidence, estimated cancer mortality, and the volume of cancer news coverage—and to study the periodicity of and peaks in Yahoo! cancer search activity.Methods Yahoo! cancer search activity was obtained from a proprietary database called the Yahoo! Buzz Index. The American Cancer Society's estimates of cancer incidence and mortality were used. News reports associated with specific cancer types were identified using the LexisNexis “US News” database, which includes more than 400 national and regional newspapers and a variety of newswire services.Results The Yahoo! search activity associated with specific cancers correlated with their estimated incidence (Spearman rank correlation, ρ = 0.50, P = .015), estimated mortality (ρ = 0.66, P = .001), and volume of related news coverage (ρ = 0.88, P < .001). Yahoo! cancer search activity tended to be higher on weekdays and during national cancer awareness months but lower during summer months; cancer news coverage also tended to follow these trends. Sharp increases in Yahoo! search activity scores from one day to the next appeared to be associated with increases in relevant news coverage.Conclusions Media coverage appears to play a powerful role in prompting online searches for cancer information. Internet search activity offers an innovative tool for passive surveillance of health information–seeking behavior.