Climate warming in North America is likely to be accompanied by changes in other environmental stresses such as UV-B radiation. We apply an empirical model to available DOC (dissolved organic C) data to estimate the depths to which 1% of surface UV-B and UV-A radiation penetrate for several major regions of North America. UV attenuation depths are also estimated from DOC data collected from treatment and reference basins during the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin. In some regions of North America 25% of the lakes have 1% attenuation depths for UV-B radiation on the order of 4 m or more (western and northwestern U.S., Newfoundland). In other regions, 75% of the lakes have 1% attenuation depths for UV-B shallower than 0.5 m (Florida, upper midwestern U.S., northwestern Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia). Attenuation depths for UV-A radiation are -2.5 times as deep as those for UV-B. Experimental acidification approximately doubled the estimated 1% attenuation depths for UV radiation in Little Rock Lake.The strong dependence of 1% attenuation depth on DOC below the l-2 mg liter-l DOC range suggests that UV attenuation in low DOC lakes is highly sensitive to even very small changes in DOC. We conclude that changes in climate, lake hydrology, acid deposition, and other environmental factors that alter DOC concentrations in lakes may be more important than stratospheric ozone depletion in controlling future UV environments in lakes.

We describe continental-scale increases in lake and stream total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, identified through periodic probability surveys of thousands of water bodies in the conterminous U.S. The increases, observed over the period 2000-2014 were most notable in sites in relatively undisturbed catchments and where TP was initially low (e.g., less than 10 μg L(-1)). Nationally, the percentage of stream length in the U.S. with TP ≤ 10 μg L(-1) decreased from 24.5 to 10.4 to 1.6% from 2004 to 2009 to 2014; the percentage of lakes with TP ≤ 10 μg L(-1) decreased from 24.9 to 6.7% between 2007 and 2012. Increasing TP concentrations appear to be ubiquitous, but their presence in undeveloped catchments suggests that they cannot be entirely attributed to either point or common non-point sources of TP.

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The term trend describes the continuing directional change in the value of an indicator, generally upward or generally downward. Many policy questions concern trend across a number of sites, such as lakes in a region, rather than trend at a single site. Power to detect regional trend seldom is discussed, and monitoring designs suitable for detecting such trends rarely are explored. Components of variance and temporal sampling designs play central roles in characterizing trend detection. We present relative numerical values of important components of variance, developed from the Surface Waters component of U.S. EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) field data, and use them as a basis for further assumptions of values. We discuss power curves in general and present them in relation to temporal designs, years of field observation, components of variance, and the level of trend detected. Revisit designs give adequate power for moderate trend in 10-15 yr, even when revisits are less frequent than annually.