Continental-Scale Increase in Lake and Stream Phosphorus: Are Oligotrophic Systems Disappearing in the United States?

Stoddard, John L.; Sickle, John Van; Herlihy, Alan T.; Brahney, Janice; Paulsen, Steven G.; Peck, David V.; Mitchell, Richard M.; Pollard, Amina I.

doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b05950

Cited by 211 publications

(186 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…We are confident that we captured the dynamics of urban and agricultural systems, as lakes in our study generally reflected the distribution and range of these land use types across the census lakes (Table 1, Fig. S1), our dataset contained 428 lakes with watersheds that met the land use portion of Stoddard et al's (2016) "minimally disturbed" definition (<5% agriculture, <1.5% urban, <2 km km À2 road density), and lake nutrient concentrations were not related to trends (Fig. Minimally disturbed and oligotrophic lakes may be increasing in P according to a recent assessment of nutrient trends from randomly chosen lakes across the United States, and atmospheric deposition was suggested as a potential cause of this change (Stoddard et al, 2016).…”

Section: Response Variablementioning

confidence: 87%

“…The low number of lakes with improved water quality, combined with evidence of continental increases in P in oligotrophic systems (Stoddard et al, 2016), and increases in sediment transport from agricultural watersheds with conservation programs (Heathcote, Filstrup, & Downing, 2013), suggests that the billions of dollars spent on management has not decreased nutrient concentrations in most lakes. The low number of lakes with improved water quality, combined with evidence of continental increases in P in oligotrophic systems (Stoddard et al, 2016), and increases in sediment transport from agricultural watersheds with conservation programs (Heathcote, Filstrup, & Downing, 2013), suggests that the billions of dollars spent on management has not decreased nutrient concentrations in most lakes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…States often study lakes for specific reasons rather than conducting random sampling, and sample lakes are larger and have more human-modified watersheds relative to the proportion of lakes across the landscape . Minimally disturbed and oligotrophic lakes may be increasing in P according to a recent assessment of nutrient trends from randomly chosen lakes across the United States, and atmospheric deposition was suggested as a potential cause of this change (Stoddard et al, 2016). S1).…”

Section: Response Variablementioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, both increasing and decreasing water clarity has been documented within regions of the Midwest and Northeast U.S., but the majority of lakes exhibit no change (Canfield et al, 2016;Lottig et al, 2014;Olmanson, Bauer, & Brezonik, 2008;Peckham & Lillesand, 2006;Rose, Greb, Diebel, & Turner, 2017). Conversely, P may accumulate faster than N in human-dominated lakes (Yan et al, 2016), and a recent nationwide survey of streams and lakes in the United States suggested that between 2007 and 2012, P increased while N did not change (Stoddard et al, 2016), though the mechanism driving this shift is not clear. Conversely, P may accumulate faster than N in human-dominated lakes (Yan et al, 2016), and a recent nationwide survey of streams and lakes in the United States suggested that between 2007 and 2012, P increased while N did not change (Stoddard et al, 2016), though the mechanism driving this shift is not clear.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

Oliver

Collins

Soranno

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, including agricultural intensification and urban expansion, as well as changes in atmospheric deposition and climate-all of which may influence eutrophication of freshwaters. However, it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded to environmental change. We quantified water quality trends in 2913 lakes using nutrient and chlorophyll (Chl) observations from the Lake Multi-Scaled Geospatial and Temporal Database of the Northeast U.S. (LAGOS-NE), a collection of preexisting lake data mostly from state agencies. LAGOS-NE was used to quantify whether lake water quality has changed from 1990 to 2013, and whether lake-specific or regional geophysical factors were related to the observed changes. We modeled change through time using hierarchical linear models for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), stoichiometry (TN:TP), and Chl. Both the slopes (percent change per year) and intercepts (value in 1990) were allowed to vary by lake and region. Across all lakes, TN declined at a rate of 1.1% year , while TP, TN:TP, and Chl did not change. A minority (7%-16%) of individual lakes had changing nutrients, stoichiometry, or Chl. Of those lakes that changed, we found differences in the geospatial variables that were most related to the observed change in the response variables. For example, TN and TN:TP trends were related to region-level drivers associated with atmospheric deposition of N; TP trends were related to both lake and region-level drivers associated with climate and land use; and Chl trends were found in regions with high air temperature at the beginning of the study period. We conclude that despite large environmental change and management efforts over recent decades, water quality of lakes in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. has not overwhelmingly degraded or improved.

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Section: Response Variablementioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Response Variablementioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

Oliver

Collins

Soranno

et al. 2017

Global Change Biology

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“…High elevation lakes with undeveloped watersheds (hereafter ‘mountain lakes’) are especially sensitive to atmospheric nutrient inputs because they often have nutrient concentrations near or below analytical detection limits, and have watershed characteristics that promote efficient flux of deposited nutrients into lakes 8,9 . There is increasing evidence that anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen 10,11 and phosphorus 7,12,13 deposition has already altered at least some mountain lake ecosystems in the Western U.S.…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

A database of georeferenced nutrient chemistry data for mountain lakes of the Western United States

Williams

Labou

2017

Sci Data

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Human activities have increased atmospheric nitrogen and phosphorus deposition rates relative to pre-industrial background. In the Western U.S., anthropogenic nutrient deposition has increased nutrient concentrations and stimulated algal growth in at least some remote mountain lakes. The Georeferenced Lake Nutrient Chemistry (GLNC) Database was constructed to create a spatially-extensive lake chemistry database needed to assess atmospheric nutrient deposition effects on Western U.S. mountain lakes. The database includes nitrogen and phosphorus water chemistry data spanning 1964–2015, with 148,336 chemistry results from 51,048 samples collected across 3,602 lakes in the Western U.S. Data were obtained from public databases, government agencies, scientific literature, and researchers, and were formatted into a consistent table structure. All data are georeferenced to a modified version of the National Hydrography Dataset Plus version 2. The database is transparent and reproducible; R code and input files used to format data are provided in an appendix. The database will likely be useful to those assessing spatial patterns of lake nutrient chemistry associated with atmospheric deposition or other environmental stressors.

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Recent Synchronous Declines in DIN:TP in Swedish Lakes

Isles

Creed

Bergström

2018

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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Declining atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in northern Europe and parts of North America, coupled with ongoing changes in climate, has the potential to alter the nutrient limitation status of freshwater ecosystems. In this study we compared time series data of atmospheric N deposition, air temperature, and precipitation with corresponding estimates of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), total phosphorus (TP), DIN:TP, and total organic carbon from 78 headwater streams and 95 nutrient‐poor lakes in Sweden from 1998 to 2013 to assess trends in, and potential drivers of, lake N:P ratios. We found that trends in nutrients were variable at the scale of individual lakes but were highly synchronous at the regional scale, suggesting underlying control by broad‐scale environmental drivers mediated by site‐specific characteristics. Widespread declines in lake DIN throughout Sweden were correlated with declines in atmospheric N deposition, particularly in northern areas. TP did not have strong directional trends, but interannual variability was synchronous at regional scales, implying that broad‐scale climate drivers were affecting these trends. Overall, we observed a significant decline in DIN:TP throughout Sweden over the monitoring period. At the beginning of the study period, 32% of lakes were N limited and 45% colimited by N and P. Proportions increased to 63% of lakes N limited and 20% colimited by N and P at the end of the study period. These results suggest that N limitation is likely to become more widespread in subarctic and boreal areas of Europe in the future if recent trends continue.

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Continental-Scale Increase in Lake and Stream Phosphorus: Are Oligotrophic Systems Disappearing in the United States?

Cited by 211 publications

References 27 publications

Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

A database of georeferenced nutrient chemistry data for mountain lakes of the Western United States

Recent Synchronous Declines in DIN:TP in Swedish Lakes

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