Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

Oliver, Samantha; Collins, Sarah M.; Soranno, Patricia A.; Wagner, Tyler; Stanley, Emily H.; Jones, John R.; Stow, Craig A.; Lottig, Noah R.

doi:10.1111/gcb.13810

Cited by 75 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…), nutrients (Oliver et al. ), and temperature (O'Reilly et al. ), a majority of long‐term patterns could not be significantly characterized by linear models and all but one of the synchronous patterns in this study were non‐linear.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 53%

Macroscale patterns of synchrony identify complex relationships among spatial and temporal ecosystem drivers

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Ecology has a rich history of studying ecosystem dynamics across time and space that has been motivated by both practical management needs and the need to develop basic ideas about pattern and process in nature. In situations in which both spatial and temporal observations are available, similarities in temporal behavior among sites (i.e., synchrony) provide a means of understanding underlying processes that create patterns over space and time. We used pattern analysis algorithms and data spanning 22-25 yr from 601 lakes to ask three questions: What are the temporal patterns of lake water clarity at subcontinental scales? What are the spatial patterns (i.e., geography) of synchrony for lake water clarity? And, what are the drivers of spatial and temporal patterns in lake water clarity? We found that the synchrony of water clarity among lakes is not spatially structured at sub-continental scales. Our results also provide strong evidence that the drivers related to spatial patterns in water clarity are not related to the temporal patterns of water clarity. This analysis of long-term patterns of water clarity and possible drivers contributes to understanding of broad-scale spatial patterns in the geography of synchrony and complex relationships between spatial and temporal patterns across ecosystems.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 53%

Macroscale patterns of synchrony identify complex relationships among spatial and temporal ecosystem drivers

et al. 2017

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“…Long‐term water quality means (TP and chlorophyll a , μg/L), which have generally not changed in our study regions since 1990 (Oliver et al. ), were calculated from all available years of data over 1981–2010. True color was considered, but ultimately excluded due to low data availability (midwestern region, 18 lakes; northeastern region, 63 lakes).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies examining either long‐term changes in nutrients (Oliver et al. ) or water clarity (Lottig et al. ) across the northeastern United States used long‐term annual climate averages to examine the potential effect of climate on lake responses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographic patterns of the climate sensitivity of lakes

McCullough

Cheruvelil

Collins

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Climate change is a well‐recognized threat to lake ecosystems and, although there likely exists geographic variation in the sensitivity of lakes to climate, broad‐scale, long‐term studies are needed to understand this variation. Further, the potential mediating role of local to regional ecological context on these responses is not well documented. In this study, we examined relationships between climate and water clarity in 365 lakes from 1981 to 2010 in two distinct regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. We asked (1) How do climate–water‐clarity relationships vary across watersheds and between two geographic regions? and (2) Do certain characteristics make some lakes more climate sensitive than others? We found strong differences in climate–water‐clarity relationships both within and across the two regions. For example, in the northeastern region, water clarity was often negatively correlated with summer precipitation (median correlation = −0.32, n = 160 lakes), but was not correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = 0.09, n = 205 lakes). In the midwestern region, water clarity was not related to summer precipitation (median correlation = −0.04), but was often negatively correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = −0.18). There were few strong relationships between local and sub‐regional ecological context and a lake's sensitivity to climate. For example, ecological context variables explained just 16–18% of variation in summer precipitation sensitivity, which was most related to total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, lake depth, and hydrology in both regions. Sensitivity to summer maximum temperature was even less predictable in both regions, with 4% or less of variation explained using all ecological context variables. Overall, we identified differences in the climate sensitivity of lakes across regions and found that local and sub‐regional ecological context weakly influences the sensitivity of lakes to climate. Our findings suggest that local to regional drivers may combine to influence the sensitivity of lake ecosystems to climate change, and that sensitivities among lakes are highly variable within and across regions. This variability suggests that lakes are sensitive to different aspects of climate change (temperature vs. precipitation) and that responses of lakes to climate are heterogeneous and complex.

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“…To date, our understanding of the future dynamics of these state variables in small temperate lakes is still limited (Couture et al, ; Fang & Stefan, ; Obertegger et al, ; Oliver et al, ; Yao et al, ). First, although the processes that control the dynamics of water temperature, ice phenology, DO, and chlorophyll a are closely interacted (Couture et al, ; Giling et al, ; Obertegger et al, ), the modeling studies for small temperate lakes usually only focused on one or two of these variables (Vincent et al, ; Yao et al, ) and few modeling studies have predicted the chlorophyll a dynamics (Fang & Stefan, ; Joehnk & Umlauf, ; Yao et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Small Temperate Lake in the 21st Century: Dynamics of Water Temperature, Ice Phenology, Dissolved Oxygen, and Chlorophyll a

Tan

Yao

Zhuang

2018

Water Resources Research

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It is unclear how small temperate lakes will evolve physically and biologically in the whole water column under future climate because previous modeling studies usually focused on only one or two physical or biological state variables in the surface waters. Here we used a well‐validated lake biogeochemistry model driven by different climate scenarios of the 21st century to predict the dynamics of ice phenology, water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and chlorophyll a in a small Canadian temperate lake (0.714 km2) that is oligotrophic and strongly stratified in summer, considering the influence of catchment hydrology. The ice season and thickness of the lake are projected to shrink substantially under warming, resulting in a positive energy feedback between climate and the lake. Due to the reduced heat diffusion and water mixing, the dynamics of water temperature in surface and deep waters of the lake are considerably different, with surface waters warmed dramatically but deep waters muted to warming. DO depletion is predicted to occur in the whole water column of the lake under warming, but the controlling processes are depth dependent. Unexpectedly, the predicted growth of the lake's chlorophyll a is small under warming, due to the weakened convection and the mismatch of the timings of favorable solar radiation, thermal, and nutrient conditions. For the examined state variables, our prediction shows that only the dynamics of DO is significantly impacted by the changing catchment hydrology. This study suggests that similar temperate lakes will have diverse physical and biological responses to climate change.

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Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

Cited by 75 publications

References 69 publications

Macroscale patterns of synchrony identify complex relationships among spatial and temporal ecosystem drivers

Macroscale patterns of synchrony identify complex relationships among spatial and temporal ecosystem drivers

Geographic patterns of the climate sensitivity of lakes

A Small Temperate Lake in the 21st Century: Dynamics of Water Temperature, Ice Phenology, Dissolved Oxygen, and Chlorophyll a

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