Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments.

Highlights  The General Lake Model (GLM) is stress tested against 32 globally distributed lakes.  There was low correlation between input data uncertainty and model performance.  Model performance related to lake-morphometry, light extinction and flow regime; deep, clear lakes with high residence times had the lowest model error.

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Lake ice cover records have been collected for decades to centuries because of the importance of lake ice for, among other things, winter transportation (e.g., ice roads), fishing, and spiritual ceremonies around the world (

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The physical dynamics of lake temperature and ice phenology are important in the modelling and management of temperate aquatic ecosystems. One-dimensional hydrothermal lake models have not been well evaluated in terms of how they simulate ice dynamics in particular. We chose four models (Hostetler, Minlake, Simple Ice Model or SIM and General Lake Model) to test and compare their performance modelling water temperature and ice dynamics using 16 years of field data from Harp Lake, an extensively studied inland lake in south-central Ontario. Each model produced satisfactory water temperature profiles over the simulated period, with small differences in the model performance. Model fits for ice phenology and ice thickness were, however, considerably lower than those for water temperature, with Minlake generating the best agreement with observed ice-on and ice-off dates as well as ice thickness, followed by SIM. The responses of lake ice dynamics to future climate scenarios were simulated by running each of the four models for 91 years, from 2010 to 2100. The predicted decrease in ice season length was significantly different among models, varying between 30 and 81 days, with an average of 48 days. Corresponding decreases in ice thickness varied between 0.11 and 0.20 m, averaging 0.17 m. This study demonstrates that uncertainty due to model performance and selection is considerable, and further testing and refinement of hydrothermal lake dynamic models are needed to improve predictive abilities for ice dynamics. Figure 7. Ice phenology (modelled versus observed) for four models: Hostetler (a), Minlake (b), GLM (c) and SIM (d), in terms of three ice features: ice thickness (i), ice-on date (ii) and ice-off date (iii) 4597 COMPARING ICE AND TEMPERATURE SIMULATIONS BY LAKE MODELS

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Total phosphorus (TP) levels in many Canadian Shield lakes in central Ontario have declined over recent decades, despite increases in human activity in most watersheds. To investigate the contribution of changes in catchment export to long-term declines in lake TP, we examined temporal and spatial patterns in TP concentrations and export (1980–1981 to 2001–2002) across 11 subcatchments that drain into three lakes in which average ice-free TP levels have declined by approximately 35%. Annual stream export of TP decreased significantly by 30%–89% in eight of the 11 subcatchments, and decreases in export were driven by declines in TP concentration, not changes in stream flow. Annual average TP concentrations varied fivefold among adjacent subcatchments, and temporal patterns in annual average TP concentrations were poorly correlated. Seasonal patterns of TP concentration were most similar among streams in the spring (March–April–May), and TP export in the spring declined significantly in 10 of the 11 subcatchments. Because spring melt is the principal hydrologic event in these seasonally snow-covered basins, decreases in TP export during the spring were primarily responsible for declines observed in annual export. The drivers of changes in TP over time are unclear at this point but are the focus of current research.