Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces ‘winners’, species that benefit from these events and ‘losers’, species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a ‘reversal of fortunes’ as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change ‘winners’, while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change ‘losers’.

Stable isotope values of carbon (␦ 13 C) and nitrogen (␦ 15 N) in blood, feathers, eggshell, and bone have been used in seabird studies since the 1980s, providing a valuable source of information on diet, foraging patterns, and migratory behavior in these birds. These techniques can also be applied to fossil material when preservation of bone and other tissues is sufficient. Excavations of abandoned Adé lie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies in Antarctica often provide well preserved remains of bone, feathers, and eggshell dating from hundreds to thousands of years B.P. Herein we present an Ϸ38,000-year time series of ␦ 13 C and ␦ 15 N values of Adé lie penguin eggshell from abandoned colonies located in three major regions of Antarctica. Results indicate an abrupt shift to lowertrophic prey in penguin diets within the past Ϸ200 years. We posit that penguins only recently began to rely on krill as a major portion of their diet, in conjunction with the removal of baleen whales and krill-eating seals during the historic whaling era. Our results support the ''krill surplus'' hypothesis that predicts excess krill availability in the Southern Ocean after this period of exploitation.abandoned colonies ͉ stable isotopes ͉ krill surplus ͉ dietary shift ͉ historic whaling

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Investigations in recent years of the ecological structure and processes of the Southern Ocean have almost exclusively taken a bottom-up, forcing-by-physical-processes approach relating various species' population trends to climate change. Just 20 years ago, however, researchers focused on a broader set of hypotheses, in part formed around a paradigm positing interspecific interactions as central to structuring the ecosystem (forcing by biotic processes, top-down), and particularly on a "krill surplus" caused by the removal from the system of more than a million baleen whales. Since then, this latter idea has disappeared from favour with little debate. Moreover, it recently has been shown that concurrent with whaling there was a massive depletion of finfish in the Southern Ocean, a finding also ignored in deference to climaterelated explanations of ecosystem change. We present two examples from the literature, one involving gelatinous organisms and the other involving penguins, in which climate has been used to explain species' population trends but which could better be explained by including species interactions in the modelling. We conclude by questioning the almost complete shift in paradigms that has occurred and discuss whether it is leading Southern Ocean marine ecological science in an instructive direction.

Using entire modern and ancient mitochondrial genomes of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) that are up to 44000 years old, we show that the rates of evolution of the mitochondrial genome are two to six times greater than those estimated from phylogenetic comparisons. Although the rate of evolution at constrained sites, including nonsynonymous positions and RNAs, varies more than twofold with time (between shallow and deep nodes), the rate of evolution at synonymous sites remains the same. The time-independent neutral evolutionary rates reported here would be useful for the study of recent evolutionary events.

Stomach content analysis (SCA) and more recently stable isotope analysis (SIA) integrated with isotopic mixing models have become common methods for dietary studies and provide insight into the foraging ecology of seabirds. However, both methods have drawbacks and biases that may result in difficulties in quantifying inter-annual and species-specific differences in diets. We used these two methods to simultaneously quantify the chick-rearing diet of Chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and Gentoo (P. papua) penguins and highlight methods of integrating SCA data to increase accuracy of diet composition estimates using SIA. SCA biomass estimates were highly variable and underestimated the importance of soft-bodied prey such as fish. Two-source, isotopic mixing model predictions were less variable and identified inter-annual and species-specific differences in the relative amounts of fish and krill in penguin diets not readily apparent using SCA. In contrast, multi-source isotopic mixing models had difficulty estimating the dietary contribution of fish species occupying similar trophic levels without refinement using SCA-derived otolith data. Overall, our ability to track inter-annual and species-specific differences in penguin diets using SIA was enhanced by integrating SCA data to isotopic mixing modes in three ways: 1) selecting appropriate prey sources, 2) weighting combinations of isotopically similar prey in two-source mixing models and 3) refining predicted contributions of isotopically similar prey in multi-source models.

Six abandoned colonies of Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) were excavated near Palmer Station, Anvers Island, Antarctic Peninsula, to investigate the occupation history of this species. Sediments from each site yielded abundant fish bones and otoliths and squid beaks that represent prey remains deposited by penguins during the nesting period. Radiocarbon analyses indicate that colony occupation began prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500-1850 AD), with the oldest site dating to 644 yrs before present (BP; average reservoir-corrected date with 1s range, 6 0 3 4 7 9 yr BP). Food remains indicate that the non-euphausiid prey of penguins consisted primarily of a mesopelagic squid (Psychroteuthis glacialis) and two species of fish (Pleuragramma antarcticum and Electrona antarctica). The relative abundance of the first two prey taxa varied significantly among six sites (x" > 34.6; df = 10; P < 0.00 1) with colonies dating prior to the LIA having greater representation of squid, and less of silverfish, than those occupied during the LIA. Data from control excavations at three modem colonies indicate a diet similar to that of the pre-LIA sites. These results suggest that Adelie penguins may have changed their diet in response to warming and cooling cycles in the past. In addition, only Adelie penguins are known to have nested in the Palmer Station area prior to the 1950s; gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) and chinstrap (P. antarctica) penguins now breeding in this region have expanded their ranges southward in the Peninsula within the past 50 yrs, in correlation with pronounced regional warming.

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