In this study, we apply learning-to-rank algorithms to design trading strategies using relative performance of a group of stocks based on investors' sentiment toward these stocks. We show that learning-to-rank algorithms are effective in producing reliable rankings of the best and the worst performing stocks based on investors' sentiment. More specifically, we use the sentiment shock and trend indicators introduced in the previous studies, and we design stock selection rules of holding long positions of the top 25% stocks and short positions of the bottom 25% stocks according to rankings produced by learning-to-rank algorithms. We then apply two learning-to-rank algorithms, ListNet and RankNet, in stock selection processes and test long-only and long-short portfolio selection strategies using 10 years of market and news sentiment data. Through backtesting of these strategies from 2006 to 2014, we demonstrate that our portfolio strategies produce risk-adjusted returns superior to the S&P500 index return, the hedge fund industry average performance-HFRIEMN, and some sentiment-based approaches without learning-to-rank algorithm during the same period.
Twitter, one of the several major social media platforms, has been identified as an influential factor for financial markets by multiple academic and professional publications in recent years. The motivation of this study hinges on the growing popularity of the use of Twitter and the increasing prevalence of its influence among the financial investment community. This paper presents empirical evidence of the existence of a financial community on Twitter in which users' interests align with financial market-related topics. We establish a methodology to identify relevant Twitter users who form the financial community, and we also present the empirical findings of network characteristics of the financial community. We observe that this financial community behaves similarly to a small-world network, and we further identify groups of critical nodes and analyse their influence within the financial community based on several network centrality measures. Using a novel sentiment analysis algorithm, we construct a weighted sentiment measure using tweet messages from these critical nodes, and we discover that it is significantly correlated with the returns of the major financial market indices. By forming a financial community within the Twitter universe, we argue that the influential Twitter users within the financial community provide a proxy for the relationship between social sentiment and financial market movement. Hence, we conclude that the weighted sentiment constructed from these critical nodes within the financial community provides a more robust predictor of financial markets than the general social sentiment.
We propose a zero-intelligence agent-based model of the E-Mini S&P 500 futures market, which allows for a close examination of the market microstructure. Several classes of agents are characterized by their order speed and order placement within the limit order book. These agents' orders populate the simulated market in a way consistent with real world participation rates. By modeling separate trading classes the simulation is able to capture interactions between classes, which are essential to recreating market phenomenon. The simulated market is validated against empirically observed characteristics of price returns and volatility. We therefore conclude that our agent based simulation model can accurately capture the key characteristics of the nearest months E-Mini S&P 500 futures market. Additionally, to illustrate the applicability of the simulation, experiments were run, which confirm the leading hypothesis for the cause of the May 6 th 2010 Flash Crash.
The potential impact of interconnected financial institutions on interbank financial systems is a financial stability concern for central banks and regulators. In examining how financial shocks propagate through contagion effects, we argue that endogenous individual bank choices are necessary to properly consider how losses develop as the interbank lending network evolves. We present an agent-based model to endogenously reconstruct interbank networks based on 6,600 banks' decision rules and behaviors reflected in quarterly balance sheets. We compare the results of our model to the results of a traditional stationary network framework for contagion. The model formulation reproduces dynamics similar to those of the 2007-09 financial crisis and shows how bank losses and failures arise from network contagion and lending market illiquidity. When calibrated to post-crisis data from 2011-14, the model shows the U.S. banking system has reduced its likelihood of bank failures through network contagion and illiquidity, given a similar stress scenario.
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