Local adaptation is a central feature of most species occupying spatially heterogeneous environments, and may factor critically in responses to environmental change. However, most efforts to model the response of species to climate change ignore intraspecific variation due to local adaptation. Here, we present a new perspective on spatial modelling of organism-environment relationships that combines genomic data and community-level modelling to develop scenarios regarding the geographic distribution of genomic variation in response to environmental change. Rather than modelling species within communities, we use these techniques to model large numbers of loci across genomes. Using balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera) as a case study, we demonstrate how our framework can accommodate nonlinear responses of loci to environmental gradients. We identify a threshold response to temperature in the circadian clock gene GIGANTEA-5 (GI5), suggesting that this gene has experienced strong local adaptation to temperature. We also demonstrate how these methods can map ecological adaptation from genomic data, including the identification of predicted differences in the genetic composition of populations under current and future climates. Community-level modelling of genomic variation represents an important advance in landscape genomics and spatial modelling of biodiversity that moves beyond species-level assessments of climate change vulnerability.

Introduced species often exhibit changes in genetic variation, population structure, selection regime and phenotypic traits as they colonize and expand into new ranges. For these reasons, species invasions are increasingly recognized as promising systems for studying adaptive evolution over contemporary time scales. However, changes in phenotypic traits during invasion occur under non-equilibrium demographic conditions and may reflect the influences of prior evolutionary history and chance events, as well as selection. We briefly review the evidence for phenotypic evolution and the role of selection during invasion. While there is ample evidence for evolutionary change, it is less clear if selection is the primary mechanism. We then discuss the likelihood that stochastic events shift phenotypic distributions during invasion, and argue that hypotheses of adaptation should be tested against appropriate null models. We suggest two experimental frameworks for separating stochastic evolution from adaptation: statistically accounting for phenotypic variation among putative invasion sources identified by using phylogenetic or assignment methods and by comparing estimates of differentiation within and among ranges for both traits and neutral markers (Q ST vs. F ST ). Designs that incorporate a null expectation can reveal the role of history and chance in the evolutionary process, and provide greater insights into evolution during species invasions.

During biological invasions, multiple introductions can provide opportunities for admixture among genetically distinct lineages. Admixture is predicted to contribute to invasion success by directly increasing fitness through hybrid vigour or by enhancing evolutionary potential within populations. Here, we demonstrate genome‐wide admixture during an invasion that substantially boosted fitness in the cosmopolitan weed, Silene vulgaris. We identified three divergent demes in the native European range that expanded from glacial refugia and experienced historical admixture in a well‐known suture zone. During recent invasion of North America, multiple introductions created additional opportunities for admixture. In common garden experiments, recombinant genotypes from North America experienced a two‐fold increase in fitness relative to nonrecombinants, whereas recombinant genotypes from Europe showed no lasting fitness benefits. This contrast implicates hybrid vigour behind the boost in fitness and supports the hypothesis that admixture can lead to fitness increases that may catapult invasion into a new range.

Signals of local adaptation have been found in many plants and animals, highlighting the heterogeneity in the distribution of adaptive genetic variation throughout species ranges. In the coming decades, global climate change is expected to induce shifts in the selective pressures that shape this adaptive variation. These changes in selective pressures will likely result in varying degrees of local climate maladaptation and spatial reshuffling of the underlying distributions of adaptive alleles. There is a growing interest in using population genomic data to help predict future disruptions to locally adaptive gene-environment associations. One motivation behind such work is to better understand how the effects of changing climate on populations’ short-term fitness could vary spatially across species ranges. Here we review the current use of genomic data to predict the disruption of local adaptation across current and future climates. After assessing goals and motivations underlying the approach, we review the main steps and associated statistical methods currently in use and explore our current understanding of the limits and future potential of using genomics to predict climate change (mal)adaptation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 51 is November 2, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

For a species rapidly expanding its geographic range, such as during biological invasion, most alleles in the introduced range will have their evolutionary origins in the native range. Yet, the way in which historical processes occurring over evolutionary time in the native range contribute to the diversity sampled during contemporary invasion is largely unknown. We used chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) gene genealogies and coalescent methods to study two congeneric plants, Silene latifolia and S. vulgaris. We examined how phylogenetic diversity was shaped by demographic growth and historical range expansions in the native European range, and how this history affected the diversity sampled during their recent invasion of North America. Genealogies from both species depart from neutrality, likely as a result of demographic expansion in the ancestral range, the timing of which corresponds to shortly after each species originated. However, the species differ in the spatial distribution of cpDNA lineages across the native range. Silene latifolia shows a highly significant phylogeographic structure that most likely reflects different avenues of the postglacial expansion into northern Europe from Mediterranean refugia. By contrast, cpDNA lineages in S. vulgaris have been widely scattered across Europe during, or since, the most recent post-glacial expansion. These different evolutionary histories resulted in dramatic differences in how phylogenetic diversity was sampled during invasion of North America. In S. latifolia, relatively few, discrete invasion events from a structured native range resulted in a rather severe genetic bottleneck, but also opportunities for admixture among previously isolated lineages. In S. vulgaris, lack of genetic structure was accompanied by more representative sampling of phylogenetic diversity during invasion, and reduced potential for admixture. Our results provide clear insights into how historical processes may feed forward to influence the phylogenetic diversity of species invading new geographic ranges.

Summary• Phenotypic and genetic clines have long been synonymous with adaptive evolution. However, other processes (for example, migration, range expansion, invasion) may generate clines in traits or loci across geographical and environmental gradients. It is therefore important to distinguish between clines that represent adaptive evolution and those that result from selectively neutral demographic or genetic processes.• We tested for the differentiation of phenotypic traits along environmental gradients using two species in the genus Silene, whilst statistically controlling for colonization history and founder effects. We sampled seed families from across the native and introduced ranges, genotyped individuals and estimated phenotypic differentiation in replicated common gardens.• The results suggest that post-glacial expansion of S. vulgaris and S. latifolia involved both neutral and adaptive genetic differentiation (clines) of life history traits along major axes of environmental variation in Europe and North America. Phenotypic clines generally persisted when tested against the neutral expectation, although some clines disappeared (and one cline emerged) when the effects of genetic ancestry were statistically removed.• Colonization history, estimated using genetic markers, is a useful null model for tests of adaptive trait divergence, especially during range expansion and invasion when selection and gene flow may not have reached equilibrium.

Proof of concept of Bayesian integrated QTL analyses across pedigree-related families from breeding programs of an outbreeding species. Results include QTL confidence intervals, individuals' genotype probabilities and genomic breeding values. Bayesian QTL linkage mapping approaches offer the flexibility to study multiple full sib families with known pedigrees simultaneously. Such a joint analysis increases the probability of detecting these quantitative trait loci (QTL) and provide insight of the magnitude of QTL across different genetic backgrounds. Here, we present an improved Bayesian multi-QTL pedigree-based approach on an outcrossing species using progenies with different (complex) genetic relationships. Different modeling assumptions were studied in the QTL analyses, i.e., the a priori expected number of QTL varied and polygenic effects were considered. The inferences include number of QTL, additive QTL effect sizes and supporting credible intervals, posterior probabilities of QTL genotypes for all individuals in the dataset, and QTL-based as well as genome-wide breeding values. All these features have been implemented in the FlexQTL(™) software. We analyzed fruit firmness in a large apple dataset that comprised 1,347 individuals forming 27 full sib families and their known ancestral pedigrees, with genotypes for 87 SSR markers on 17 chromosomes. We report strong or positive evidence for 14 QTL for fruit firmness on eight chromosomes, validating our approach as several of these QTL were reported previously, though dispersed over a series of studies based on single mapping populations. Interpretation of linked QTL was possible via individuals' QTL genotypes. The correlation between the genomic breeding values and phenotypes was on average 90 %, but varied with the number of detected QTL in a family. The detailed posterior knowledge on QTL of potential parents is critical for the efficiency of marker-assisted breeding.

Rapid range expansions can cause pervasive changes in the genetic diversity and structure of populations. The postglacial history of the Balsam Poplar, Populus balsamifera, involved the colonization of most of northern North America, an area largely covered by continental ice sheets during the last glacial maximum. To characterize how this expansion shaped genomic diversity within and among populations, we developed 412 SNP markers that we assayed for a range-wide sample of 474 individuals sampled from 34 populations. We complemented the SNP data set with DNA sequence data from 11 nuclear loci from 94 individuals, and used coalescent analyses to estimate historical population size, demographic growth, and patterns of migration. Bayesian clustering identified three geographically separated demes found in the Northern, Central, and Eastern portions of the species' range. These demes varied significantly in nucleotide diversity, the abundance of private polymorphisms, and population substructure. Most measures supported the Central deme as descended from the primary refuge of diversity. Both SNPs and sequence data suggested recent population growth, and coalescent analyses of historical migration suggested a massive expansion from the Centre to the North and East. Collectively, these data demonstrate the strong influence that range expansions exert on genomic diversity, both within local populations and across the range. Our results suggest that an in-depth knowledge of nucleotide diversity following expansion requires sampling within multiple populations, and highlight the utility of combining insights from different data types in population genomic studies.