Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

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As ubiquitous computing becomes a reality, its applications are increasingly being used in business-critical, mission-critical and even in safety-critical, areas. Such systems must demonstrate an assured level of correctness. One approach to the exhaustive analysis of the behaviour of systems is formal verification , whereby each important requirement is logically assessed against all possible system behaviours. While formal verification is often used in safety analysis, it has rarely been used in the analysis of deployed pervasive applications. Without such formality it is difficult to establish that the system will exhibit the correct behaviours in response to its inputs and environment. In this paper, we show how model-checking techniques can be applied to analyse the probabilistic behaviour of pervasive systems. As a case study we apply this technique to an existing pervasive message-forwarding system, Scatterbox . Scatterbox incorporates many typical characteristics of pervasive systems, such as dependence on sensor reliability and dependence on context. We assess the dynamic temporal behaviour of the system, including the analysis of probabilistic elements, allowing us to verify formal requirements even in the presence of uncertainty in sensors. We also draw some tentative conclusions concerning the use of formal verification for pervasive computing in general.