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Purpose To compare treatment strategies for ocular surface squamous neoplasia (OSSN), ranging from surgical excision to empiric topical interferon alpha-2b (IFN-α2b). Methods A decision model was constructed to determine which of four treatment strategies minimized expected persistence/recurrence of disease in patients with OSSN: excision followed by repeat excision for positive surgical margins, excision followed by IFN-α2b for positive margins, incisional biopsy followed by IFN-α2b for positive biopsies, and empiric treatment with IFN-α2b. Probabilities were estimated from literature published between 1983 and 2015. Expected values for the probability of recurrence could range from 0 (no persistence/recurrence) to 1 (persistence/recurrence). Sensitivity analyses were performed for each variable. Results Excision followed by IFN-α2b for positive margins was estimated to minimize persistence/recurrence of OSSN (EV 0.13 versus 0.17 for empiric IFN-α2b, 0.22 for excision-only, and 0.30 for incisional biopsy-directed IFN-α2b). The optimal strategy was sensitive to three variables: efficacy of IFN-α2b, recurrence following negative surgical margins, and accuracy of excisional biopsy. Conclusions In our decision analysis using studies published between 1983 and 2015, surgical excision followed by IFN-α2b for positive margins is the favored strategy for minimizing persistence/recurrence of OSSN. Future prospective studies would add to the certainty of these conclusions.

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The model predicts that treating asymptomatic hyperuricemia with allopurinol is most effective in preventing VE at a serum urate above 7.0 mg/dl in men and 5.0 mg/dl in women.

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IMPORTANCE Diagnostic variation among pathologists interpreting cutaneous melanocytic lesions could lead to suboptimal care. OBJECTIVE To estimate the potential association of second-opinion strategies in the histopathologic diagnosis of cutaneous melanocytic lesions with diagnostic accuracy and 1-year population-level costs in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Decision analysis with 1-year time horizon including melanocytic lesion diagnoses available from US pathologists participating in the Melanoma Pathology Study (M-Path) and from the study panel of reference pathologists who classified cases using the MPATH-Dx classification tool. M-Path data collection occurred from July 2013 through March 2015; analyses for the present study were performed between April 2015 and January 2021.EXPOSURES Various second-opinion strategies for interpretation of melanocytic cutaneous lesions.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Estimated accuracy of pathologists' diagnoses, defined as concordance with the reference panel diagnoses, and 1-year postbiopsy medical costs under various second-opinion strategies. Expected percentage of concordant diagnoses, including percentages of overinterpretation and underinterpretation, and 1-year costs of medical care per 100 000 in the US population.RESULTS Decision-analytic model parameters were based on diagnostic interpretations for 240 cases by 187 pathologists compared with reference panel diagnoses. Without second opinions, 83.2% of diagnoses in the US were estimated to be accurate-ie, concordant with the reference diagnosis; with overinterpretation (8.0%) or underinterpretation (8.8%), and 16 850 misclassified diagnoses per 100 000 biopsies. Accuracy increased under all second-opinion strategies. Accuracy (87.4% concordance with 3.6% overinterpretation and 9.1% underinterpretation) and cost (an increase of more than $10 million per 100 000 biopsies per year) were highest when second opinions were universal (eg, performed on all biopsies), relative to no second opinions. A selective second-opinion strategy based on pathologists' desire or institutional requirements for a second opinion was most accurate (86.5% concordance; 4.4% overinterpretation; 9.1% underinterpretation) and would reduce costs by more than $1.9 million per 100 000 skin biopsies relative to no second opinions. Improvements in diagnostic accuracy with all second-opinion strategies were associated with reductions in overinterpretation but not underinterpretation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEIn this decision-analytic model, selective second-opinion strategies for interpretation of melanocytic skin lesions showed the potential to improve diagnostic accuracy and decrease costs relative to no second opinions or universal second opinions.

55 Background: Fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy agents, including 5-fluorouracil and capecitabine, are the backbone of adjuvant treatment for colon cancer, and adjuvant chemotherapy substantially reduces recurrence and mortality after surgical resection of stage 3 colon cancer. While fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy is generally safe, the risk of severe, potentially fatal chemotherapy toxicity is substantially increased for the 2-3% of U.S. patients with DPD deficiency caused by pathogenic variants in the DPYD gene. DPYD genotype testing is readily available in the U.S. but has not been widely adopted. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of DPYD genotyping prior to adjuvant chemotherapy for colon cancer in the U.S. Methods: We constructed a Markov model to simulate screening for DPD deficiency with DPYD genotyping (versus no screening) among patients receiving fluoropyrimidine-based adjuvant chemotherapy for stage 3 colon cancer. Screen-positive patients were modeled to receive dose-reduced fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. Model transition probabilities for treatment-related toxicities were derived from published clinical trial data with annotation of DPYD genotype and chemotherapy dosing strategy. Our analysis is from the healthcare perspective, with a time horizon of five years and an annual discount rate of 3% for future costs and benefits. Direct healthcare costs and health utilities were estimated from published sources and converted to 2020 US dollars, and post-treatment survival was modeled from SEER data. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), defined as dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). We used a value of $100,000/QALY as the cost-effectiveness threshold. One-way sensitivity analyses were used to examine model uncertainty. Results: Compared with no screening, screening for DPD deficiency with DPYD genotyping increased per-patient costs by $106 and improved quality-adjusted survival by 0.0028 QALYs, leading to an ICER of $37,300/QALY. In one-way sensitivity analyses, the ICER exceeded $100,000/QALY when the carrier frequency of pathogenic DPYD gene variants was less than 1.17%, and when the specificity of DPYD genotyping was less than 98.9%. Cost-effectiveness estimates were not sensitive to the cost of DPYD genotyping, the cost of toxicity-related hospitalizations, or the health utility associated with grade 3-4 toxicity. Conclusions: Among patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for stage 3 colon cancer, screening for DPD deficiency with DPYD genotyping is a cost-effective strategy for preventing infrequent but severe, sometimes fatal toxicities of fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy.