This study predicts the burden of incident osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in the United States, by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and fracture type, from 2005 to 2025. Total fractures were >2 million, costing nearly $17 billion in 2005. Men account for >25% of the burden. Rapid growth in the disease burden is projected among nonwhite populations. Introduction:The aging of the U.S. population will likely lead to greater prevalence of osteoporosis. Policy makers require precise projections of the disease burden by demographic subgroups and skeletal sites to effectively target osteoporosis intervention and treatment programs. Materials and Methods: A state transition Markov decision model was used to estimate total incident fractures and costs by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and skeletal site for the U.S. population ജ50 years of age for 2005-2025. Results: More than 2 million incident fractures at a cost of $17 billion are predicted for 2005. Total costs including prevalent fractures are more than $19 billion. Men account for 29% of fractures and 25% of costs. Total incident fractures by skeletal site were vertebral (27%), wrist (19%), hip (14%), pelvic (7%), and other (33%). Total costs by fracture type were vertebral (6%), hip (72%), wrist (3%), pelvic (5%), and other (14%). By 2025, annual fractures and costs are projected to rise by almost 50%. The most rapid growth is estimated for people 65-74 years of age, with an increase >87%. An increase of nearly 175% is projected for Hispanic and other subpopulations. Conclusions: Osteoporosis prevention, treatment, and education efforts should address all skeletal sites, not just hip and vertebral, and appropriate attention is warranted for men and diverse race/ethnicity subgroups.

Background Surgery for spinal stenosis is widely performed, but its effectiveness as compared with nonsurgical treatment has not been shown in controlled trials. Methods Surgical candidates with a history of at least 12 weeks of symptoms and spinal stenosis without spondylolisthesis (as confirmed on imaging) were enrolled in either a randomized cohort or an observational cohort at 13 U.S. spine clinics. Treatment was decompressive surgery or usual nonsurgical care. The primary outcomes were measures of bodily pain and physical function on the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form General Health Survey (SF-36) and the modified Oswestry Disability Index at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 and 2 years. Results A total of 289 patients were enrolled in the randomized cohort, and 365 patients were enrolled in the observational cohort. At 2 years, 67% of patients who were randomly assigned to surgery had undergone surgery, whereas 43% of those who were randomly assigned to receive nonsurgical care had also undergone surgery. Despite the high level of nonadherence, the intention-to-treat analysis of the randomized cohort showed a significant treatment effect favoring surgery on the SF-36 scale for bodily pain, with a mean difference in change from baseline of 7.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 14.1); however, there was no significant difference in scores on physical function or on the Oswestry Disability Index. The as-treated analysis, which combined both cohorts and was adjusted for potential confounders, showed a significant advantage for surgery by 3 months for all primary outcomes; these changes remained significant at 2 years. Conclusions In the combined as-treated analysis, patients who underwent surgery showed significantly more improvement in all primary outcomes than did patients who were treated nonsurgically.

No abstract

Meta-analysis is potentially important in the assessment of diagnostic tests. Those reading meta-analyses evaluating diagnostic tests should critically appraise them; those doing meta-analyses should apply recently developed methods. The conduct and reporting of primary studies on which meta-analyses are based require improvement.

Study Design Randomized trial and concurrent observational cohort study Objective To compare 4 year outcomes of surgery to non-operative care for spinal stenosis. Summary of Background Data Surgery for spinal stenosis has been shown to be more effective compared to non-operative treatment over two years, but longer-term data have not been analyzed. Methods Surgical candidates from 13 centers in 11 U.S. states with at least 12 weeks of symptoms and confirmatory imaging were enrolled in a randomized cohort (RC) or observational cohort (OC). Treatment was standard decompressive laminectomy or standard non-operative care. Primary outcomes were SF-36 bodily pain (BP) and physical function (PF) scales and the modified Oswestry Disability index (ODI) assessed at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and yearly up to 4 years. Results 289 patients enrolled in the RC and 365 patients enrolled in the OC. An as-treated analysis combining the RC and OC and adjusting for potential confounders found that the clinically significant advantages for surgery previously reported were maintained through 4 years, with treatment effects (defined as mean change in surgery group minus mean change in non-op group) for BP 12.6 (95% CI, 8.5 to 16.7); PF 8.6 (95% CI, 4.6 to 12.6); and ODI −9.4 (95% CI, −12.6, to −6.2). Early advantages for surgical treatment for secondary measures such as bothersomeness, satisfaction with symptoms and self-rated progress also were maintained. Conclusions Patients with symptomatic spinal stenosis treated surgically compared to those treated non-operatively maintain substantially greater improvement in pain and function through four years.

IMPORTANCE A breast pathology diagnosis provides the basis for clinical treatment and management decisions; however, its accuracy is inadequately understood. OBJECTIVES To quantify the magnitude of diagnostic disagreement among pathologists compared with a consensus panel reference diagnosis and to evaluate associated patient and pathologist characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Study of pathologists who interpret breast biopsies in clinical practices in 8 US states. EXPOSURES Participants independently interpreted slides between November 2011 and May 2014 from test sets of 60 breast biopsies (240 total cases, 1 slide per case), including 23 cases of invasive breast cancer, 73 ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), 72 with atypical hyperplasia (atypia), and 72 benign cases without atypia. Participants were blinded to the interpretations of other study pathologists and consensus panel members. Among the 3 consensus panel members, unanimous agreement of their independent diagnoses was 75%, and concordance with the consensus-derived reference diagnoses was 90.3%. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The proportions of diagnoses overinterpreted and underinterpreted relative to the consensus-derived reference diagnoses were assessed. RESULTS Sixty-five percent of invited, responding pathologists were eligible and consented to participate. Of these, 91% (N = 115) completed the study, providing 6900 individual case diagnoses. Compared with the consensus-derived reference diagnosis, the overall concordance rate of diagnostic interpretations of participating pathologists was 75.3% (95% CI, 73.4%–77.0%; 5194 of 6900 interpretations). Consensus ReferenceDiagnosis Pathologist Interpretation vs Consensus-Derived Reference Diagnosis, % (95% CI) No. ofInterpretations Overall ConcordanceRate OverinterpretationRate UnderinterpretationRate Benign without atypia 2070 87 (85–89) 13 (11–15) Atypia 2070 48 (44–52) 17 (15–21) 35 (31–39) DCIS 2097 84 (82–86) 3 (2–4) 13 (12–15) Invasive carcinoma 663 96 (94–97) 4 (3–6) Disagreement with the reference diagnosis was statistically significantly higher among biopsies from women with higher (n = 122) vs lower (n = 118) breast density on prior mammograms (overall concordance rate, 73% [95% CI, 71%–75%] for higher vs 77% [95% CI, 75%–80%] for lower, P < .001), and among pathologists who interpreted lower weekly case volumes (P < .001) or worked in smaller practices (P = .034) or nonacademic settings (P = .007). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study of pathologists, in which diagnostic interpretation was based on a single breast biopsy slide, overall agreement between the individual pathologists’ interpretations and the expert consensus–derived reference diagnoses was 75.3%, with the highest level of concordance for invasive carcinoma and lower levels of concordance for DCIS and atypia. Further research is needed to understand the relationship of these findings with patient management.

Objective To quantify the accuracy and reproducibility of pathologists’ diagnoses of melanocytic skin lesions. Design Observer accuracy and reproducibility study. Setting 10 US states. Participants Skin biopsy cases (n=240), grouped into sets of 36 or 48. Pathologists from 10 US states were randomized to independently interpret the same set on two occasions (phases 1 and 2), at least eight months apart. Main outcome measures Pathologists’ interpretations were condensed into five classes: I (eg, nevus or mild atypia); II (eg, moderate atypia); III (eg, severe atypia or melanoma in situ); IV (eg, pathologic stage T1a (pT1a) early invasive melanoma); and V (eg, ≥pT1b invasive melanoma). Reproducibility was assessed by intraobserver and interobserver concordance rates, and accuracy by concordance with three reference diagnoses. Results In phase 1, 187 pathologists completed 8976 independent case interpretations resulting in an average of 10 (SD 4) different diagnostic terms applied to each case. Among pathologists interpreting the same cases in both phases, when pathologists diagnosed a case as class I or class V during phase 1, they gave the same diagnosis in phase 2 for the majority of cases (class I 76.7%; class V 82.6%). However, the intraobserver reproducibility was lower for cases interpreted as class II (35.2%), class III (59.5%), and class IV (63.2%). Average interobserver concordance rates were lower, but with similar trends. Accuracy using a consensus diagnosis of experienced pathologists as reference varied by class: I, 92% (95% confidence interval 90% to 94%); II, 25% (22% to 28%); III, 40% (37% to 44%); IV, 43% (39% to 46%); and V, 72% (69% to 75%). It is estimated that at a population level, 82.8% (81.0% to 84.5%) of melanocytic skin biopsy diagnoses would have their diagnosis verified if reviewed by a consensus reference panel of experienced pathologists, with 8.0% (6.2% to 9.9%) of cases overinterpreted by the initial pathologist and 9.2% (8.8% to 9.6%) underinterpreted. Conclusion Diagnoses spanning moderately dysplastic nevi to early stage invasive melanoma were neither reproducible nor accurate in this large study of pathologists in the USA. Efforts to improve clinical practice should include using a standardized classification system, acknowledging uncertainty in pathology reports, and developing tools such as molecular markers to support pathologists’ visual assessments.

Hip fracture is an important contributor to disability and NH use, but the potential savings from hip fracture prophylaxis may be overestimated by studies that fail to consider differential risk, mortality, and long-term follow-up.