The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non‐native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non‐native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non‐native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

The manuscript assesses the current and expected future global drivers of Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems. Atmospheric ozone depletion over the Antarctic since the 1970s, has been a key driver, resulting in springtime cooling of the stratosphere and intensification of the polar vortex, increasing the frequency of positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This increases warm air-flow over the East Pacific sector (Western Antarctic Peninsula) and cold air flow over the West Pacific sector. SAM as well as El Niño Southern Oscillation events also affect the Amundsen Sea Low leading to either positive or negative sea ice anomalies in the west and east Pacific sectors, respectively. The strengthening of westerly winds is also linked to shoaling of deep warmer water onto the continental shelves, particularly in the East Pacific and Atlantic sectors. Air and ocean warming has led to changes in the cryosphere, with glacial and ice sheet melting in both sectors, opening up new ice free areas to biological productivity, but increasing seafloor disturbance by icebergs. The increased melting is correlated with a salinity decrease particularly in the surface 100 m. Such processes could increase the availability of iron, which is currently limiting primary production over much of the SO. Increasing CO2 is one of the most important SO anthropogenic drivers and is likely to affect marine ecosystems in the coming decades. While levels of many pollutants are lower than elsewhere, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and plastics have been detected in the SO, with concentrations likely enhanced by migratory species. With increased marine traffic and weakening of ocean barriers the risk of the establishment of non-indigenous species is increased. The continued recovery of the ozone hole creates uncertainty over the reversal in sea ice trends, especially in the light of the abrupt transition from record high to record low Antarctic sea ice extent since spring 2016. The current rate of change in physical and anthropogenic drivers is certain to impact the Marine Ecosystem Assessment of the Southern Ocean (MEASO) region in the near future and will have a wide range of impacts across the marine ecosystem.

ABSTRACT. Climate warming and resource development could alter key Arctic ecosystem functions that support fish and wildlife resources harvested by local indigenous communities. A different set of global forces-government policies and tourism markets-increasingly directs local cash economies that communities use to support subsistence activities. Agent-based computational models (ABMs) contribute to an integrated assessment of community sustainability by simulating how people interact with each other and adapt to changing economic and environmental conditions. Relying on research and local knowledge to provide rules and parameters for individual and collective decision making, our ABM generates hypothetical social histories as adaptations to scenario-driven changes in environmental and economic conditions. The model generates projections for wage employment, cash income, subsistence harvests, and demographic change over four decades based on a set of user-defined scenarios for climate change, subsistence resources, development, and government spending. Model outcomes assess how scenarios associated with economic and climate change might affect the local economy, resource harvests, and the well-being of residents for the Western Arctic Canadian community of Old Crow, Yukon. The economic and demographic outcomes suggest implications for less quantifiable social and cultural changes. The model can serve as a discussion tool for a fuller exploration of community sustainability and adaptation issues.Key words: community sustainability, integrated assessment, local knowledge, mixed economy, tourism, agent-based model, simulation, climate change, Old Crow, Yukon RÉSUMÉ. Le réchauffement climatique et la mise en valeur des ressources pourraient modifier des fonctions clés de l'écosystème arctique qui assurent le maintien des ressources ichtyques et fauniques exploitées par les collectivités autochtones locales. Un autre jeu de forces à l'échelle mondiale -les politiques gouvernementales et les marchés du tourisme -dirige de plus en plus les économies monétaires locales qu'utilisent les collectivités pour soutenir leurs activités de subsistance. Des modèles informatiques orientés agent (ABM) concourent à une évaluation intégrée de la viabilité des collectivités en simulant les interactions entre les personnes et leur adaptation aux conditions changeantes de l'économie et de l'environnement. S'appuyant sur des travaux de recherche et sur le savoir local afin de fournir règles et paramètres pour la prise de décisions individuelle et collective, notre ABM génère des histoires sociales fictives comme adaptations à des changements dans les conditions environnementales et économiques définis dans un scénario. Le modèle génère des projections pour l'emploi salarié, le revenu monétaire, les prélèvements de subsistance et le changement démographique au cours de quatre décennies. Ces projections sont fondées sur un ensemble de scénarios définis par l'utilisateur concernant le changement climatique, les ressources de subsistance, l...

A wide array of technologies exist for the characterization and quantification of molecules present at surfaces. We have used several of these experimental and instrumental techniques for the analysis of a novel biomaterial surface. Osteopontin, an extracellular matrix molecule involved in wound-healing processes, has been chosen as a relevant model protein to immobilize onto poly(2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate) [poly(HEMA)]. Electron spectroscopy for chemical analysis and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry were used to verify the surface chemistry and the presence of protein. Iodination of osteopontin yielded quantitative data supportive of dose-dependent immobilization. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was also used to investigate the presence of osteopontin on poly(HEMA). Finally, the cell adhesive properties of immobilized osteopontin were confirmed by using a bovine aortic endothelial cell adhesion assay. The use of multiple tools to characterize the many facets of a biomaterial surface will undoubtedly improve our understanding of the surface and facilitate the amelioration of in vivo performance.