Adaptation and Sustainability in a Small Arctic Community : Results of an Agent-based Simulation Model

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Climate warming and resource development could alter key Arctic ecosystem functions that support fish and wildlife resources harvested by local indigenous communities. A different set of global forces-government policies and tourism markets-increasingly directs local cash economies that communities use to support subsistence activities. Agent-based computational models (ABMs) contribute to an integrated assessment of community sustainability by simulating how people interact with each other and adapt to changing economic and environmental conditions. Relying on research and local knowledge to provide rules and parameters for individual and collective decision making, our ABM generates hypothetical social histories as adaptations to scenario-driven changes in environmental and economic conditions. The model generates projections for wage employment, cash income, subsistence harvests, and demographic change over four decades based on a set of user-defined scenarios for climate change, subsistence resources, development, and government spending. Model outcomes assess how scenarios associated with economic and climate change might affect the local economy, resource harvests, and the well-being of residents for the Western Arctic Canadian community of Old Crow, Yukon. The economic and demographic outcomes suggest implications for less quantifiable social and cultural changes. The model can serve as a discussion tool for a fuller exploration of community sustainability and adaptation issues.Key words: community sustainability, integrated assessment, local knowledge, mixed economy, tourism, agent-based model, simulation, climate change, Old Crow, Yukon RÉSUMÉ. Le réchauffement climatique et la mise en valeur des ressources pourraient modifier des fonctions clés de l'écosystème arctique qui assurent le maintien des ressources ichtyques et fauniques exploitées par les collectivités autochtones locales. Un autre jeu de forces à l'échelle mondiale -les politiques gouvernementales et les marchés du tourisme -dirige de plus en plus les économies monétaires locales qu'utilisent les collectivités pour soutenir leurs activités de subsistance. Des modèles informatiques orientés agent (ABM) concourent à une évaluation intégrée de la viabilité des collectivités en simulant les interactions entre les personnes et leur adaptation aux conditions changeantes de l'économie et de l'environnement. S'appuyant sur des travaux de recherche et sur le savoir local afin de fournir règles et paramètres pour la prise de décisions individuelle et collective, notre ABM génère des histoires sociales fictives comme adaptations à des changements dans les conditions environnementales et économiques définis dans un scénario. Le modèle génère des projections pour l'emploi salarié, le revenu monétaire, les prélèvements de subsistance et le changement démographique au cours de quatre décennies. Ces projections sont fondées sur un ensemble de scénarios définis par l'utilisateur concernant le changement climatique, les ressources de subsistance, l...

Reviewing Agent-Based Modelling of Socio-Ecosystems: A Methodology for the Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainability

“…Janssen and de Vries 1998) or at a more empirical level (e.g. Bharwani et al 2005;Ziervogel et al 2005;Berman et al 2004;Werner and McNamara 2007;Barthel et al 2008;Entwisle et al 2008). In contrast, there are several ABM applications which generically include climate change elements in their system modelling (e.g.…”

“…Different terms are used to define subtly different approaches to ABM: agent-based simulation modelling (e.g Berman et al 2004), individual-based modelling (e.g. Grimm and Railsback 2005), multi-agent-based simulation (e.g.…”

“…Filatova (2009) incorporated climate change related risks in an agent-based land market for coastal cities, which simulates the emergence of urban land patterns and land prices as a result of micro scale interactions between buyers and sellers. Berman et al (2004), Bharwani et al (2005) and Ziervogel et al (2005) are the only published empirical field studies, which explicitly aim at exploring local adaptation in the context of climate change and sustainable development by means of ABM. As Bharwani et al (2005) and refer to the same research project, we chose to review Bharwani et al (2005) for its more comprehensive model description.…”

“…It has been tested in similar studies but not applied in the reviewed paper and therefore it is not present in table 2. Berman et al (2004) assess how scenarios associated with economic and climate change might affect a local economy, resource harvest and the wellbeing of an existing community. Bharwani et al (2005) investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner.…”

Seabirds as a subsistence and cultural resource in two remote Alaskan communities

“…Small remote communities in the 21st century face many challenges, especially in the Arctic and subarctic (Dryzek and Young 1985, Chabot 2003, Berman et al 2004. Social, environmental, and economic systems have all changed because of forces of modernization and globalization.…”