Unrest at large calderas rarely ends in eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of volcanic activity as false alarms. A classic example is the Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy, where three episodes of major uplift since 1950 have raised its central district by about 3 m without an eruption. Individual episodes have conventionally been treated as independent events, so that only data from an ongoing episode are considered pertinent to evaluating eruptive potential. An implicit assumption is that the crust relaxes accumulated stress after each episode. Here we apply a new model of elastic-brittle failure to test the alternative view that successive episodes promote a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust. The results provide the first quantitative evidence that Campi Flegrei is evolving towards conditions more favourable to eruption and identify field tests for predictions on how the caldera will behave during future unrest.

The 501 m deep hole of the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project, located west of the Naples metropolitan area and inside the Campi Flegrei caldera, gives new insight to reconstruct the volcanotectonic evolution of this highly populated volcano. It is one of the highest risk volcanic areas in the world, but its tectonic structure, eruptive history, and size of the largest eruptions are intensely debated in the literature. New stratigraphic and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronological dating allow us to determine, for the first time, the age of intracaldera deposits belonging to the two highest magnitude caldera-forming eruptions (i.e., Campanian Ignimbrite, CI, 39 ka, and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff, NYT, 14.9 ka) and to estimate the amount of collapse. Tuffs from 439 m of depth yield the first 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age of ca. 39 ka within the caldera, consistent with the CI. Volcanic rocks from the NYT were, moreover, detected between 250 and 160 m. Our findings highlight: (i) a reduction of the area affected by caldera collapse, which appears to not include the city of Naples; (ii) a small volume of the infilling caldera deposits, particularly for the CI, and (iii) the need for reassessment of the collapse amounts and mechanisms related to larger eruptions. Our results also imply a revaluation of volcanic risk for the eastern caldera area, including the city of Naples. The results of this study point out that large calderas are characterized by complex collapse mechanisms and dynamics, whose understanding needs more robust constraints, which can be obtained from scientific drilling.

The causative source of the first damaging earthquake instrumentally recorded in the Island of Ischia, occurred on 21 August 2017, has been studied through a multiparametric geophysical approach. In order to investigate the source geometry and kinematics we exploit seismological, Global Positioning System, and Sentinel‐1 and COSMO‐SkyMed differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar coseismic measurements. Our results indicate that the retrieved solutions from the geodetic data modeling and the seismological data are plausible; in particular, the best fit solution consists of an E‐W striking, south dipping normal fault, with its center located at a depth of 800 m. Moreover, the retrieved causative fault is consistent with the rheological stratification of the crust in this zone. This study allows us to improve the knowledge of the volcano‐tectonic processes occurring on the Island, which is crucial for a better assessment of the seismic risk in the area.

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A model of caldera resurgence was applied to the Island of Ischia to explain uplift, volcanic activity and tectonics on Mount Epomeo, as well as historical seismicity and slow ground movements recorded for the past 2000 years. A two-dimensional mechanical model was utilized for the crust, which was considered to be an elastic plate overlying a laccolith. Geometric dimensions and mechanical parameters were constrained using geological, geophysical and geochemical data.We propose that a laccolith, with a diameter L of c. 10 km, and a depth of up to 1 km in the centre of the island, triggered the caldera resurgence after the Mount Epomeo Green Tuff eruption forming the caldera (55 000 a bp). A bending phase and a punched laccolith phase are thought to have caused the observed deformations in the caldera. These processes control the tectonics at the boundary of the Mount Epomeo resurgent structure, volcanic activity and dynamics of the island.

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