Invasive alien species continue to arrive in new locations with no abatement in rate, and thus greater predictive powers surrounding their ecological impacts are required. In particular, we need improved means of quantifying the ecological impacts of new invasive species under different contexts. Here, we develop a suite of metrics based upon the novel Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric, combining the functional response (consumer per capita effect), with proxies for the numerical response (consumer population response), providing quantification of invasive species ecological impact. These metrics are comparative in relation to the eco-evolutionary baseline of trophically analogous natives, as well as other invasive species and across multiple populations. Crucially, the metrics also reveal how impacts of invasive species change under abiotic and biotic contexts. While studies focused solely on functional responses have been successful in predictive invasion ecology, RIP retains these advantages while adding vital other predictive elements, principally consumer abundance. RIP can also be combined with propagule pressure to quantify overall invasion risk. By highlighting functional response and numerical response proxies, we outline a user-friendly method for assessing the impacts of invaders of all trophic levels and taxonomic groups. We apply the metric to impact assessment in the face of climate change by taking account of both changing predator consumption rates and prey reproduction rates. We proceed to outline the application of RIP to assess biotic resistance against incoming invasive species, the effect of evolution on invasive species impacts, application to interspecific competition, changing spatio-temporal patterns of invasion, and how RIP can inform biological control. We propose that RIP provides scientists and practitioners with a user-friendly, customisable and, crucially, powerful technique to inform invasive species policy and management.

The oceans’ uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) decreases seawater pH and alters the inorganic carbon speciation – summarized in the term ocean acidification (OA). Already today, coastal regions experience episodic pH events during which surface layer pH drops below values projected for the surface ocean at the end of the century. Future OA is expected to further enhance the intensity of these coastal extreme pH events. To evaluate the influence of such episodic OA events in coastal regions, we deployed eight pelagic mesocosms for 53 days in Raunefjord, Norway, and enclosed 56–61 m3 of local seawater containing a natural plankton community under nutrient limited post-bloom conditions. Four mesocosms were enriched with CO2 to simulate extreme pCO2 levels of 1978 – 2069 μatm while the other four served as untreated controls. Here, we present results from multivariate analyses on OA-induced changes in the phyto-, micro-, and mesozooplankton community structure. Pronounced differences in the plankton community emerged early in the experiment, and were amplified by enhanced top-down control throughout the study period. The plankton groups responding most profoundly to high CO2 conditions were cyanobacteria (negative), chlorophyceae (negative), auto- and heterotrophic microzooplankton (negative), and a variety of mesozooplanktonic taxa, including copepoda (mixed), appendicularia (positive), hydrozoa (positive), fish larvae (positive), and gastropoda (negative). The restructuring of the community coincided with significant changes in the concentration and elemental stoichiometry of particulate organic matter. Results imply that extreme CO2 events can lead to a substantial reorganization of the planktonic food web, affecting multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to primary and secondary consumers.

A mesocosm approach was used to investigate the effects of ocean acidification (OA) on a natural plankton community in coastal waters off Norway by manipulating CO2 partial pressure (pCO2). Eight enclosures were deployed in the Raunefjord near Bergen. Treatment levels were ambient (~320 µatm) and elevated pCO2 (~2000 µatm), each in 4 replicate enclosures. The experiment lasted for 53 d in May-June 2015. To assess impacts of OA on the plankton community, phytoplankton and protozooplankton biomass and total seston fatty acid content were analyzed. In both treatments, the plankton community was dominated by the dinoflagellate Ceratium longipes. In the elevated pCO2 treatment, however, biomass of this species as well as that of other dinoflagellates was strongly negatively affected. At the end of the experiment, total dinoflagellate biomass was 4-fold higher in the control group than under elevated pCO2 conditions. In a size comparison of C. longipes, cell size in the high pCO2 treatment was significantly larger. The ratio of polyunsaturated fatty acids to saturated fatty acids of seston decreased at high pCO2. In particular, the concentration of docosahexaenoic acid (C 22:6n3c), essential for development and reproduction of metazoans, was less than half at high pCO2 compared to ambient pCO2. Thus, elevated pCO2 led to a deterioration in the quality and quantity of food in a natural plankton community, with potential consequences for the transfer of matter and energy to higher trophic levels

The copepod Acartia tonsa is a key component of a wide range of marine ecosystems, linking energy transfer from phytoplankton to higher trophic levels, and has a central role in productivity and biogeochemistry. The interaction of end-of-century global warming and ocean acidification scenarios with testing moderate temperature effects on a seminatural copepod community is needed to understand future community functioning. Here, we deployed a mesocosm experimental set-up with a full factorial design using two temperatures (13°C and 19°C) crossed with a pCO2 gradient ranging from ambient (550 μatm) to 3000 μatm. We used the natural bacteria, phyto- and microzooplankton species composition and biomass of the Kiel Bight and tested the response of A. tonsa development, carbon growth, mortality, size and condition. The tested traits were differently affected by the interaction of temperature and acidification. Ocean acidification increased development, carbon growth, size and mortality under the warming scenario of 19°C. At 13°C mortality rates decreased, while carbon growth, size and condition increased with acidification. We conclude from our experimental approach that a single species shows a variety of responses depending on the focal functional trait. Trait-specific mesozooplankton responses need to be further investigated and compared between geographical regions, seasons and taxonomic groups.

Ocean-related global change has strongly affected the competition between key marine phytoplankton groups, such as diatoms and dinoflagellates, especially with the deleterious consequency of the increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms. The dominance of diatoms generally shifts toward that of dinoflagellates in response to increasing temperature and reduced nutrient availability; however, contradictory findings have also been observed in certain sea areas. A key challenge in ecology and biogeochemistry is to quantitatively determine the effects of multiple environmental factors on the diatom-dinoflagellate community and the related changes in elemental and biochemical composition. Here, we test the interplay between temperature, nutrient concentrations and their ratios on marine diatom-dinoflagellate competition and chemical composition using bi-algal competition experiments. The ubiquitous diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum and dinoflagellate Prorocentrum minimum were cultivated semi-continuously, provided with different N and P concentrations (three different levels) and ratios (10:1, 24:1, and 63:1 molar ratios) under three temperatures (12, 18, and 24°C). The responses of diatom-dinoflagellate competition were analyzed by a Lotka-Volterra model and quantified by generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). The changes in nutrient concentrations significantly affected diatom-dinoflagellate competition, causing a competitive superiority of the diatoms at high nutrient concentrations, independent of temperature and N:P supply ratios. Interestingly, the effect amplitude of nutrient concentrations varied with different temperatures, showing a switch back toward a competitive superiority of the dinoflagellates at the highest temperature and at very high nutrient concentrations. The ratios of particulate organic nitrogen to phosphorus showed significant negative correlations with increasing diatoms/dinoflagellates ratios, while lipid biomarkers (fatty acids and sterols) correlated positively with increasing diatoms/dinoflagellates ratios over the entire ranges of temperature, N and P concentrations and N:P ratios. Our results indicate that the integration of phytoplankton community structure and chemical composition provides an important step forward to quantitatively understand and predict how phytoplankton community changes affect ecosystem functions and biogeochemical cycles in the ocean.