The paper presents a methodical approach to building complex models for analysis of the state’s financial security (SFS) indicators dynamics, based on such methods of multivariate data analysis as the principal component analysis, canonical correlation, level of development, vector autoregression technology, error correction model. Vector autoregressive models of the SFS indicators dynamics of Ukraine and the countries of the European Union have been developed. The interrelationships of the SFS components, short–term effects, the rate of return to the equilibrium trajectory after the impact of external "shocks" (threats) have been studied. Were selected the most sensitive to external "shocks" SFS subsystems, sources of threat occurrence. The proposed complex of models can be considered as an element of the model basis of the forecasting and analytical mechanism of the financial security provision system, which is aimed at earlier informing, detecting threats and preventing their negative impact.
In the conditions of increasing financial turbulence, permanently recurring crises, the problem of ensuring the macro-regions financial security is of particular importance. One of the directions of improving financial security systems is the development of a model basis for assessing, analyzing and forecasting the level of financial security, allowing early diagnosis of factors destabilizing the financial systems functioning and developing preventive strategies aimed at preventing financial crises and disasters. In the structure of such a model basis, models for assessing the impact of interregional interaction effects on the level of macro-regions financial security are highlighted. To build models, methods of factorial, canonical analysis, a taxonomic indicator of the level of development, methods of spatial econometrics, model of panel data were used. The models were built on the data of financial security indicators of the EU countries. The obtained results can be used by the financial stability departments to determine the most probable channels of infection by the crisis, to develop the adequate mechanisms for financial stabilization.
The article is devoted to the development of an effective forecasting unit as an integral element of corporate management systems, including the financial management system. The expediency of proactive management modern technology introduction in the financial management system and subsystem of corporate enterprises anti-crisis management is proved. The necessity of developing a powerful forecasting unit within the framework of solving the problem of preventing financial crises in corporate systems is substantiated. The use of the socioeconomic forecasting progressive method, the "Caterpillar" method, is substantiated. Approbation of the model complex showed that the financial condition of the corporation under investigation in the forecast period may be characterized by an increase in the level of the crisis threat, while for a number of subsidiaries there is a high probability of bankruptcy, which leads to the need to implement anti-crisis measures in the corporate structure.
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