Abstract. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951–2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951–2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.

S U M M A R YMt Ruapehu is an active andesite cone volcano, which marks the southern termination of the Kermadec volcanic arc. Results from 40 broad-band magnetotelluric soundings have been analysed using the phase tensor. This approach provides a way of determining dimensionality, allowing for distortion removal, and visualizing data in a 3-D situation. The phase tensor analysis suggests that the shallow resistivity structure is largely 1-D in character, but that the deeper structure requires a 3-D interpretation. 1-D inversions show that at sites on Ruapehu a shallow conductive layer lies between a high resistivity layer, of a few hundred metres thickness, and higher resistivity layer corresponding to basement greywacke. The low resistivity layer is contiguous with the waters of the highly acidic Crater Lake, and thus is believed to be the hydraulically controlled upper limit of a zone of acid alteration overlain by dry volcanic rock and ash. To the southwest of the volcano the conductive layer merges with a surface conductor associated with Tertiary sediments. Following initial 2-D inversions, the deep resistivity structure has been derived through 3-D inversion of data from 38 sites. This indicates the existence of a dyke-like low resistivity zone that persists to at least 10 km depth and extends from beneath the summit of Ruapehu to the northeast where it appears to connect to a poorly constrained region of high conductivity, which lies outside the network of measurement sites. The low resistivity dyke-like feature may be identified with a volcanic feeder system, which also supplies the other volcanoes of the Tongariro Volcanic Centre and marks the conduit by which hot gases and (occasionally) magma reach the surface.

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Abstract. Australian dust emissions are highly episodic, and this may increase the importance of Australian dust as a climate feedback agent. We compare two 160-year coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations of modern-day climate using the CSIRO Mark 3.6 global climate model (GCM). The first run (DUST) includes an interactive treatment of mineral dust and its direct radiative effects. The second run (NODUST) is otherwise identical, but has the Australian dust source set to zero. We focus on the austral spring season, when the correlation between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is strongest over Australia. The ENSOrainfall relationship over eastern Australia is stronger in the DUST run: dry (El Niño) years tend to be drier, and wet (La Niña) years wetter. The amplification of ENSO-related rainfall variability over eastern Australia represents an improvement relative to observations. The effect is driven by ENSO-related anomalies in radiative forcing by Australian dust over the south-west Pacific Ocean; these anomalies increase (decrease) surface evaporation in La Niña (El Niño) years. Some of this moisture is advected towards eastern Australia, where increased (decreased) moisture convergence in La Niña (El Niño) years increases the amplitude of ENSOrelated rainfall variability. The modulation of surface evaporation by dust over the south-west Pacific occurs via surface radiative forcing and dust-induced stabilisation of the boundary layer. The results suggest that (1) a realistic treatment of Australian dust may be necessary for accurate simulation of the ENSO-rainfall relationship over Australia, and (2) radiative feedbacks involving dust may be important for understanding natural rainfall variability over Australia.

This paper investigates the predictability of heavy precipitation in the economically important Waikato River basin of New Zealand. A 2-yr archive of Global Forecast System (GFS) model data to 1180 h for the period August 2005-August 2007 forms the basis of the study. GFS model predictions of precipitation are compared to surface measurements from 22 stations in and around the river basin. Categorical hit rate and bias, threat score, false-alarm ratio, probability of detection, RMSE, skill score, and mean error are all plotted as a function of model lead time for the 2-yr period.The general synoptic structures of heavy precipitation events are often identified at long lead times. An example is shown for January 2006 when heavy rainfall is identified by GFS at 1150 h, accurate location and timing is given at 148 h. Precipitation amounts are systematically underpredicted by GFS and the spatial distribution of rainfall is limited by model resolution. The value of GFS lies in its ability to provide early warning of potential heavy precipitation.Three heavy rainfall events were selected for higher-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. The WRF model produced more realistic geographical distributions of precipitation but cannot compensate for errors in the global model. WRF underpredicts precipitation for all three cases; the best simulation generates 92% of observed precipitation.Unobserved spurious convective rainfall can be generated by the WRF model following the passage of a frontal weather system. A possible mechanism is suggested that links this to underpredicted frontal rainfall.