In the land use and land cover (LULC) literature, narrative scenarios are qualitative descriptions of plausible futures associated with a combination of socioeconomic , policy, technological, and climate changes. LULC models are then often used to translate these narrative descriptions into quantitative characterizations of possible future societal and ecological impacts and conditions. To respect the intent of the underlying scenario descriptions, this process of translation needs to be thoughtful, transparent, and reproducible. This paper evaluates the current state of the art in scenario translation methods and outlines their relative advantages and disadvantages, as well as the respective roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts. We summarize our findings in the form of a decision matrix that can assist land use planners, scientists, and modelers in choosing a translation method appropriate to their situation.

Voluntary, permanent land protection is a key conservation process in many countries. Concerns with the effectiveness of such decentralized processes exist due to the potential for (1) selection bias, that is, the protection of parcels whose land cover would have been conserved in the absence of protection, and (2) local spillover effects, that is, protection increasing the likelihood that adjacent parcels lose land cover due to additional conversion. We examine the validity of both concerns using a quasi‐experimental approach and a dataset of 220,187 parcels and 26 years of protection and land‐cover change in Massachusetts. We find that land acquisitions and conservation restrictions implemented by state, local, and nongovernmental actors reduced forest loss and conversion to developed uses without increasing either type of land‐cover change on adjacent parcels. Our results suggest that voluntary, permanent land protection can make significant contributions in protecting land cover in landscapes dominated by private ownership.

Forests are often touted for their ecosystem services, including outdoor recreation. Historically forests were a source of danger and were avoided. Forests continue to be reservoirs for infectious diseases and their vectors - a disservice. We examine how this disservice undermines the recreational services by measuring the human response to environmental risk using exogenous variation in the risk of contracting Lyme Disease. We find evidence that individuals substitute away from spending time outdoors when there is greater risk of Lyme Disease infection. Individuals facing a higher risk of infection substitute away from outdoor leisure. On average individuals spent 1.54 fewer minutes outdoors at the average, 72 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), confirmed cases of Lyme Disease. We estimate lost outdoor recreation of 9.41 hours per year per person in an average county in the North Eastern United States and an aggregate welfare loss on the order $2.8 billion to $5.0 billion per year.

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