In the land use and land cover (LULC) literature, narrative scenarios are qualitative descriptions of plausible futures associated with a combination of socioeconomic , policy, technological, and climate changes. LULC models are then often used to translate these narrative descriptions into quantitative characterizations of possible future societal and ecological impacts and conditions. To respect the intent of the underlying scenario descriptions, this process of translation needs to be thoughtful, transparent, and reproducible. This paper evaluates the current state of the art in scenario translation methods and outlines their relative advantages and disadvantages, as well as the respective roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts. We summarize our findings in the form of a decision matrix that can assist land use planners, scientists, and modelers in choosing a translation method appropriate to their situation.

ABSTRACT. Although efforts to address ecosystem services in decision making have advanced considerably in recent years, there remain challenges related to valuation. In particular, conventional economic approaches have been criticized for their inability to capture the collective nature of ecosystem services, for their emphasis on monetary metrics, and the difficulty of assessing the value of ecosystem services to future generations. We present a deliberative multicriteria evaluation (DMCE) method that combines the advantages of multicriteria decision analysis with a deliberation process that allows citizens and scientists to exchange knowledge and evaluate ecosystem services in a social context. Compared with previous applications we add the following: (i) a choice task that can be expected to lead to a more reliable assessment of trade-offs among ecosystem services, and (ii) an explicit consideration of the future by both presenting specific socioeconomic scenarios and asking participating citizens to serve as "trustees" for future generations. We implemented our DMCE framework with 11 panels of residents of the upper Merrimack River watershed in New Hampshire with the goal of assessing the relative value of 10 different ecosystem services in the form of trade-off weights. We found that after group deliberation and expert scientific input, all groups except one were able to reach internal consensus on the relative value of these ecosystem services. Additionally, the pattern of trade-off weights across groups was reasonably similar; there was no statistically significant effect of the specific future scenarios that were presented to the groups. Results of a survey given to participants after the deliberative process revealed that most felt that their opinion during the deliberation was heard by the others and that they were influential on the outcome. Further, the vast majority were satisfied with the outcome of the deliberation. We conclude by discussing the strengths and limitations of our framework at an operational level.

The Natura 2000 network of protected areas aims to assure the long‐term survival of Europe's most valuable and threatened species and habitats. Yet, evidence shows that the present network fails to represent effectively the biodiversity of the region. Priority areas for conservation of coastal and offshore biodiversity features in the Greek Ionian Sea were identified, based on the principles of systematic conservation planning (SCP). SCP is a transparent method for the design of MPA networks and is considered more efficient and successful in representing the biodiversity of a region. The prioritization software Marxan was used and three scenarios with different sets of targets for 17 (high and low priority) conservation features were produced. These scenarios explicitly took into account socio‐economic factors expressed as a single cost metric, weighting different economic sectors in proportion to their contribution to the GDP of the region. Then results were compared with the existing Natura 2000 sites in terms of goal achievement, area requirements, and cost. The solutions produced by the systematic approach demanded less area and lower cost to achieve the goals set, when the selection of all Natura 2000 sites was not forced. Existing Natura 2000 sites alone failed to achieve conservation goals for some EU priority and other important coastal and offshore habitats and species of the Mediterranean Sea. It is suggested that the use of systematic conservation planning and related computational tools could benefit the selection of European marine priority areas, especially in the context of ecosystem‐based marine spatial management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

No abstract

ABSTRACT. Accurate quantification of ecosystem services (ES) at regional scales is increasingly important for making informed decisions in the face of environmental change. We linked terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem process models to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrological and water quality characteristics related to ecosystem services. The linked model integrates two existing models (a forest ecosystem model and a river network model) to establish consistent responses to changing drivers across climate, terrestrial, and aquatic domains. The linked model is spatially distributed, accounts for terrestrial-aquatic and upstreamdownstream linkages, and operates on a daily time-step, all characteristics needed to understand regional responses. The model was applied to the diverse landscapes of the Upper Merrimack River watershed, New Hampshire, USA. Potential changes in future environmental functions were evaluated using statistically downscaled global climate model simulations (both a high and low emission scenario) coupled with scenarios of changing land cover (centralized vs. dispersed land development) for the time period of 1980-2099. Projections of climate, land cover, and water quality were translated into a suite of environmental indicators that represent conditions relevant to important ecosystem services and were designed to be readily understood by the public. Model projections show that climate will have a greater influence on future aquatic ecosystem services (flooding, drinking water, fish habitat, and nitrogen export) than plausible changes in land cover. Minimal changes in aquatic environmental indicators are predicted through 2050, after which the high emissions scenarios show intensifying impacts. The spatially distributed modeling approach indicates that heavily populated portions of the watershed will show the strongest responses. Management of land cover could attenuate some of the changes associated with climate change and should be considered in future planning for the region.