Geographic redistribution of living natural resources changes access and thereby harvesting opportunities between countries. Internationally shared fish resources can be sensitive to shifts in the marine environment and this may have great impact on the economies of countries and regions that rely most heavily on fisheries to provide employment and food supply. Here we present a climate change-related biotic expansion of a rich natural resource with substantial economic consequences, namely the appearance of northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in Greenlandic waters. In recent years, the summer temperature has reached record highs in the Irminger Current, and this development has expanded the available and realized mackerel habitat in time and space. Observations in the Irminger Current in east Greenland in 2011 of this temperature-sensitive epipelagic fish were the first records so far northwest in the Atlantic. This change in migration pattern was followed by a rapid development of a large-scale fishery of substantial importance for the national economy of Greenland (23% of Greenland's export value of all goods in 2014). A pelagic trawl survey was conducted in mid-summer 2014 and the results showed that the bulk of ~1 million Mg (=t) of mackerel in the Irminger Current in southeast Greenland were located in the relatively warm (>8.5°C) surface layer. Mackerel was also observed in southwest Greenland. Finally, 15 CMIP5 Earth System Model projections of future marine climate were used to evaluate the epipelagic environment in Greenland. These projections for moderate and high CO emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5) suggest how the available mackerel habitat may expand further in space and time. Overall, our results indicate that, if the stock remains large, productive, and continues its current migration pattern, then climate change has provided Greenland with a new unique opportunity for commercial exploitation. However, positive cases like this should not be cherry-picked and misused as arguments against timely and effective mitigation of climate change.

In this study, 11 microsatellite markers were used to determine the structure of West Greenlandic lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus populations across six spawning locations spanning >1500 km and compared with neighbouring populations in Canada and Iceland. To evaluate whether data allow for identification of origin of C. lumpus in Greenlandic waters, genetic assignment analysis was performed for 86 C. lumpus sampled on a feeding migration. Significant structuring with isolation by distance was observed in the West Greenland samples and two major subpopulations, north and south, were suggested. Based on F values, closer relationships were observed between Greenland and Canada, than Greenland and Iceland. Surprisingly, the North Greenland population showed more similarities with Canadian samples, than did the geographically closer south-west Greenland population. Origin could be assigned for a high proportion of non-spawning fish and demonstrated a marked east-west spatial separation of fish of Greenlandic and Icelandic genotypes.

There are currently no dedicated recruitment survey data available in support of the assessment of the abundance and distribution of Northeast Atlantic (NEA) mackerel (Scomber scombrus), one of the most widespread and commercially important fish stocks in the North Atlantic. This is despite the fact that an estimate of recruitment is an important requirement for the provision of advice to fishery managers. The work here addresses this by compiling catch rates of juvenile mackerel from bottom-trawl surveys conducted between October and March during 1998 -2012 and applying a log Gaussian Cox (LGC) process geostatistical model incorporating spatio-temporal correlations. A statistically significant correlation between the modelled catch rates in adjacent quarters 4 and 1 (Q4 and Q1) demonstrates that bottom-trawl surveys in winter are an appropriate platform for sampling juvenile mackerel, and that the LCG model is successful in extracting a population abundance signal from the data. In this regard, the model performed appreciably better than a more commonly used raising algorithm based on survey swept-area estimates. Therefore, the LCG model was expanded to include data from the entire survey time-series, and a recruitment index was developed for use in the annual ICES stock assessment. We hypothesize that catchability is positively density-dependant and provides supporting evidence from acoustic observations. Various density-dependant transformations of the modelled catch rates were furthermore found to improve the correlation between the derived annual recruitment index and recruitment estimated by backcalculation of adult mackerel data. Square root transformation led to the strongest correlation, so this is recommended for further analysis of mackerel abundance. Finally, we provide maps of spatial distributions, showing that the most important nursery areas are around Ireland, north and west of Scotland, in the northern North Sea north of 598N and, to some extent, also in the Bay of Biscay.

As result of ocean warming, marine boreal species have shifted their distribution poleward, with increases in abundance at higher latitudes, and declines in abundance at lower latitudes. A key to predict future changes in fish communities is to understand how fish stocks respond to climate variability. Scattered field observations in the first half of the 20th century suggested that boreal fish may coherently invade Greenland waters when temperatures rise, but this hypothesis has remained untested. Therefore, we studied how local temperature variability and the dynamics of the subpolar gyre, a large-scale driver of oceanic conditions in the North Atlantic, affect abundance of boreal fishes in a region that sharply defines their lower thermal boundary. We analysed information from demersal trawl surveys from 1981 to 2017, for species distributed from shallow shelf to depths of 1,500 m, collected at over 10,000 stations along ~3,000 km of Greenland. Our results show that local temperature and variability of Labrador and Irminger Sea water in the subpolar gyre region drive interdecadal variability of boreal fish abundance in Greenland waters. Although temperature fluctuations were higher in shallow than deep regions, fish abundance changed as quickly in great depths as in shallow depths. This link between physics and biology provides an opportunity for prediction of future trends, which is of utility in Greenland, where fisheries constitute more than 90% of the national export value.

This report documents the fishery, assessment, and management of lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) across its distribution range. Targeting lumpfish for their roe on a large scale began in the 1950s in Iceland and Norway and then in Canada in the 1970s and Greenland in the 1990s. When the fishery began, there were few regulations, but limits on vessel size, mesh size, number of nets, and length of the fishing season were gradually implemented over time. Worldwide landings have varied from ca. 2000 to 8000 tonnes of roe between 1977 and 2016. Iceland and Canada accounted for >80% of the landings until 2000. After 2013, Greenland and Iceland accounted for >94%. All countries except Iceland show a decreasing trend in the number of boats participating in the fishery, which is related to several factors: the monetary value of the roe, changes in the abundance of lumpfish, and increasing age of artisanal fishers. Each country has a different combination of data available for assessment from basic landings and fishing effort data to more detailed fishery independent survey indices of abundance. The management of total catch also differs, with an effort-controlled fishery in Iceland and Canada, a total allowable catch (TAC) per boat in Norway, and TAC per area in Greenland. Population abundance is above management targets in Iceland and Norway, but the status is less clear in Greenland and around Denmark/Sweden and appears to be depleted around Canada. Certification by the Marine Stewardship Council was instrumental in the adoption of a management plan in Greenland; however, benefits to the fishers remain unclear. Aspects surrounding the biology of lumpfish, which is poorly understood and requires investigation, include growth rate, natural mortality, and population differentiation. In addition, there is concern about the potential impacts that the recent escalation in production of lumpfish for use as cleaner fish in the aquaculture industry could have on the wild population.