Ocean warming expands habitat of a rich natural resource and benefits a national economy

Jansen, Teunis; Post, Søren; Kristiansen, Trond; Óskarsson, Guðmundur J.; Boje, Jesper; MacKenzie, Brian R.; Broberg, Mala; Siegstad, Helle

doi:10.1002/eap.1384

Cited by 58 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 28 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…The development of new fisheries as species shift their distributions is emerging as an important adaptation strategy to climate change, albeit one with intrinsic major challenges as species shift across local, national and international boundaries (Gaines et al, ; Pinsky et al, ). Although shifts in the distribution of commercially important fish stocks have already led to new fishery opportunities and positive economic impacts in some high latitude regions (Jansen et al, ), the socio‐economic consequences of range‐shifting species are still largely under‐explored (Madin et al, ).…”

Section: Approaches To Managing Tropicalised Reefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

et al. 2019

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Temperate reefs from around the world are becoming tropicalised, as warm‐water species shift their distribution towards the poles in response to warming. This is already causing profound shifts in dominant foundation species and associated ecological communities as canopy seaweeds such as kelp are replaced by tropical species. Here, we argue that the cascading consequences of tropicalisation for the ecosystem properties and functions of warming temperate reefs depend largely on the taxa that end up dominating the seafloor. We put forward three potential tropicalisation trajectories, that differ in whether seaweeds, turf or corals become dominant. We highlight potential gains to certain ecosystem functions for some tropicalisation endpoints. For example, local benthic fish productivity may increase in some tropicalised reefs as a higher proportion of primary production is directly consumed, but this will be at the expense of other functions such as carbon export. We argue that understanding these changes in flows of energy and materials is essential to formulate new conservation strategies and management approaches that minimise risks as well as capture potential opportunities. Regardless of which trajectory is followed, tropicalised systems represent largely novel ecosystem configurations. This poses major challenges to traditional conservation and environmental management approaches, which typically focus on maintaining or returning species to particular locations. We outline management practices that may either mitigate predicted structural and functional changes or make the most of potential new opportunities in tropicalised reefs. These include marine protected areas to increase resilience and connectivity, the development of new fisheries that target range‐expanding invaders, and assisted evolution and migration strategies to facilitate the dominance of large habitat formers like corals or seaweeds. We highlight important ecological and ethical challenges associated with developing novel approaches to manage tropicalised reefs, which may need to become increasingly interventionist. As technological innovations continue to emerge, having clear goals and considering the ethics surrounding interventions among the broader community are essential steps to successfully develop novel management approaches. A plain language summary is available for this article.

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Section: Approaches To Managing Tropicalised Reefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

et al. 2019

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“…It has been shown that changes in water temperature may influence the spring migrations and the spawning seasonality of the north‐west mackerel southern contingent (Overholtz et al, ; Radlinski, Sundermeyer, Bisagni, & Cadrin, ). As a response to ocean warming, mackerel spawning habitat has been reported to be shifting poleward (Beare & Reid, ; Bruge et al, ; Hughes, Dransfeld, & Johnson, ) while its distributional range is expanding in the north‐east Atlantic (Berge et al, ; Jansen et al, ). Changes in zooplankton abundance may also alter mackerel distribution range.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

Mbaye

Doniol‐Valcroze

Brosset

et al. 2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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We investigated the effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL). Based on generalized additive models, we (i) modelled the optimal spawning habitat of mackerel in the sGSL using daily egg production (DEP) in June, (ii) predicted known and new potential present spawning habitats in the GSL and the north‐west Atlantic, and (iii) assessed how they respond to future climate change. Our findings showed that both mackerel presence–absence and given‐presence DEP were associated with sea surface temperature (10–16.5°C), salinity above 31 and depth < 120 m. Adding zooplankton showed a marked effect on the DEP given‐presence compared to the presence–absence. Predictions of spawning habitats under present (1999–2012) and future scenario (2066–2085) conditions were estimated from the presence–absence model without zooplankton, using physical conditions of the BNAM. Under present conditions, our model predicted well the main spawning habitat in the sGSL and other known secondary spawning habitats in the northern GSL (nGSL), the western and southern Newfoundland, and the north‐west Atlantic coast. Under future conditions, our study suggests that spawning habitats in the sGSL and the nGSL would expand. Our results, therefore, suggest that mackerel could benefit from a warmer GSL, minimizing the potential for a northward migration of the stock due to decreasing suitability of the sGSL as its main spawning ground, and a new but spatially limited potential habitat in Newfoundland coasts. These results can be used to inform stock management and develop adaptive management plans in the context of climate change.

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“…Mackerel is one of the most abundant and widely distributed fish species in the North Atlantic Ocean (Trenkel et al, 2014;Nøttestad et al, 2015;Jansen et al, 2016). It is also one of the economically most important fish species in the North Atlantic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

First‐year survival of North East Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) from 1998 to 2012 appears to be driven by availability of Calanus, a preferred copepod prey

Jansen

2016

Fisheries Oceanography

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Mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is one of the ecologically and economically most important fish species in the Atlantic. Its recruitment has, for unknown reasons, been exceptional from 1998 to 2012. The majority (75%) of the survivors in the first winter were found north of an oceanographic division at approximately 52°N, despite the fact that mackerel spawns over a wide range of latitudes. Multivariate time series modelling of survivor abundance in the north revealed a significant correlation with the abundance of copepodites (stage I–IV) of Calanus sp. in the spawning season (April to June). The copepodites were a mix of C. helgolandicus (dominating) and C. finmarchicus. The growth of mackerel larvae is known to be positively related to the availability of nauplii and copopodites of preferred prey species, namely, large calanoid copepod species such as Calanus. The statistical relationship between mackerel survivors and abundance of Calanus, therefore, most likely, reflected a causal relationship: high availability of Calanus probably reduced starvation, stage‐specific predation and cannibalism (owing to prey switching). The effects of other abundant, but less preferred zooplankton taxa, (Acartia sp., Branchiopoda spp. and Echinodermata spp. larvae), as well as stock size, temperature and wind‐induced turbulence were not found to be significant. However, stock size was retained in the final model because of a significant interaction with Calanus in oceanic areas west of the North European continental shelf. This was suggested to be a consequence of a density driven expansion of the spawning area that increased the overlap between early life stages of mackerel and food (Calanus) in new areas.

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Ocean warming expands habitat of a rich natural resource and benefits a national economy

Cited by 58 publications

References 28 publications

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

First‐year survival of North East Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) from 1998 to 2012 appears to be driven by availability of Calanus, a preferred copepod prey

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