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In Australia, estimates of student attrition during the first year of university study range from 24 percent to 30 percent, depending on the institution, and have remained remarkably stable during the past 10 years (Abbott-Chapman, Hughes, & Wyld, 1992; Ramsey, Tranter, Sumner, & Barrett, 1996). Despite the vast number of causal studies of attrition overseas and the infrequent descriptive insights reported in Australia, institutional researchers appear to be no closer to accurately and easily predicting students at risk of prematurely withdrawing from undergraduate programs of study. This article will provide support for an alternative explanation of attrition for a specific group of university students: students who planned to withdraw from their original program of study after facilitating entry to another undergraduate degree.

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