Energy demand forecasting is practiced in several time frames; different explanatory variables are used in each case to serve different decision support mandates. For example, in the short, daily, term building level, forecasting may serve as a performance baseline. On the other end, we have long-term, policy-oriented forecasting exercises. TIMES (an acronym for The Integrated Markal Efom System) allows us to model supply and anticipated technology shifts over a long-term horizon, often extending as far away in time as 2100. Between these two time frames, we also have a mid-term forecasting time frame, that of a few years ahead. Investigations here are aimed at policy support, although in a more mid-term horizon, we address issues such as investment planning and pricing. In this paper, we develop and evaluate statistical and neural network approaches for this mid-term forecasting of final energy and electricity for the residential sector in six EU countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Portugal and Greece). Various possible approaches to model the explanatory variables used are presented, discussed, and assessed as to their suitability. Our end goal extends beyond model accuracy; we also include interpretability and counterfactual concepts and analysis, aiming at the development of a modelling approach that can provide decision support for strategies aimed at influencing energy demand.

Worldwide, buildings are one of the main energy consumers and the improvement of their energy performance has attracted great interest and has been typically related to the optimisation, both design and operational, of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC), lighting and DHW systems, to innovation in building materials, as well as to the integration of renewable technology in buildings. More recently, occupant behaviour has received increasing attention. Occupants’ interactions with the building systems influence their energy consumption in diverse ways. Their behaviour may affect energy use just as the systems and materials may do. Researchers identified and highlighted various aspects of this occupant behaviour and were gradually led to the conclusion that its effect might be worth investigating. This study has a twofold aim. First, to present a general conceptual framework to define, monitor and eventually change user behaviour in buildings. This framework is called “event-driven”; events are distinct moments in time associated with a potentially problematic behaviour, and the framework aims at tracking, acting upon and reporting on these events. Second, we aim to demonstrate and discuss the application and the savings achieved by means of our proposed approach and in the case of such behavioural events, in the Challenger building of Bouygues, in France.

No abstract

Abstract:In an era governed by economic crisis, deep recession and lack of funds, the perspective of sustainable development drives local government to a more focused and constant effort to adapt to their daily requirements not only in respect to the central state but also towards the growing needs of the local society. As the need for planning actions in accordance with the principles of sustainable energy remains urgent, municipalities continue to envision and to respond to their role in helping to create a better future for generations to come. Thereupon the vision of the Municipality of Hersonissos, as firstly recorded in its Business Plan for 2011-2014, was, and still is, its' development in an Economic, Tourist and Cultural pole by adopting and applying the basic principles of sustainable development. At the same time the Municipality's rigid vision, planning, and evaluation, oriented by environmental protection, highlighted the need for networking on European level as although cities are different, their problems are often common. Thus on April 18, 2011, the Municipality of Hersonissos, joined the European Union initiative "Covenant of Mayors" [1] with the common aim of the fight against climate change. This article presents the significant initiatives taken in this direction in the last decade and their results not only on economical level but also along their social impact. It also aims to point out a municipality's vital role in knowledge and technology diffusion within the local society as sustainable energy development can be deployed not only by the private sector but also by the public.