SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

This cohort study investigates the use of longitudinal data from ultradeep sequencing of cell-free DNA in Danish patients with colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE Novel sensitive methods for early detection of relapse and for monitoring therapeutic efficacy may have a huge impact on risk stratification, treatment, and ultimately outcome for patients with bladder cancer. We addressed the prognostic and predictive impact of ultra-deep sequencing of cell-free DNA in patients before and after cystectomy and during chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS We included 68 patients with localized advanced bladder cancer. Patient-specific somatic mutations, identified by whole-exome sequencing, were used to assess circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) by ultra-deep sequencing (median, 105,000×) of plasma DNA. Plasma samples (n = 656) were procured at diagnosis, during chemotherapy, before cystectomy, and during surveillance. Expression profiling was performed for tumor subtype and immune signature analyses. RESULTS Presence of ctDNA was highly prognostic at diagnosis before chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 29.1; P = .001). After cystectomy, ctDNA analysis correctly identified all patients with metastatic relapse during disease monitoring (100% sensitivity, 98% specificity). A median lead time over radiographic imaging of 96 days was observed. In addition, for high-risk patients (ctDNA positive before or during treatment), the dynamics of ctDNA during chemotherapy was associated with disease recurrence ( P = .023), whereas pathologic downstaging was not. Analysis of tumor-centric biomarkers showed that mutational processes (signature 5) were associated with pathologic downstaging ( P = .024); however, no significant correlation for tumor subtypes, DNA damage response mutations, and other biomarkers was observed. Our results suggest that ctDNA analysis is better associated with treatment efficacy compared with other available methods. CONCLUSION ctDNA assessment for early risk stratification, therapy monitoring, and early relapse detection in bladder cancer is feasible and provides a basis for clinical studies that evaluate early therapeutic interventions.

Minimally invasive approaches to detect residual disease after surgery are urgently needed to select patients at highest risk for metastatic relapse for additional therapies. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) holds promise as a biomarker for molecular residual disease (MRD) and relapse, 1-3 but its clinical value has yet to be demonstrated in a randomised clinical trial. We evaluated outcomes in post-surgical ctDNA-positive (+) patients in a randomised phase III trial of adjuvant atezolizumab versus observation. IMvigor010 enrolled 809 patients with muscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma and did not meet its primary endpoint of disease-free survival (DFS) in the intent-to-treat population. Within the study, an exploratory planned analysis of prospectively collected plasma was performed, which tested the utility of ctDNA to identify patients who may benefit from adjuvant atezolizumab treatment. ctDNA was measured at the start of therapy (cycle 1 day 1; C1D1) and at week 6 (cycle 3 day 1; C3D1), and 581 patients were evaluable for ctDNA. The prevalence of ctDNA positivity at C1D1 was 37% (n=214), and ctDNA positivity identified patients with poor prognosis (observation arm DFS HR= 6.19 (4.29, 8.91), p<0.0001).Here we show that ctDNA(+) patients had improved DFS and overall survival (OS) with atezolizumab versus observation (DFS HR= 0.56 (0.41-0.77); p=0.0003 and OS HR= 0.58 (0.4-0.86); p=0.0063). No difference in DFS or OS between arms was noted for ctDNA-negative patients. The rate of ctDNA clearance was higher with atezolizumab (18%) versus observation (4%) (p=0.0041). Transcriptomic analysis revealed that tumours from ctDNA(+) patients had higher expression of cell cycle and keratin genes. Within the ctDNA(+) patient population in the atezolizumab arm, non-relapsing patients were further enriched in prominent immune response signatures including PD-L1, IFNG, CXCL9, and high tumour mutational burden, whereas relapse was associated with angiogenesis and fibroblast-transforming growth factor- signatures (F-TBRS). TCGA molecular subset analysis revealed increased efficacy of atezolizumab in patients with basal-squamous tumours, consistent with underlying tumour-immune contexture.Together these findings suggest that adjuvant atezolizumab may be associated with improved outcomes compared with observation in this high-risk ctDNA(+) population. These findings, if validated in other settings, would shift approaches to post-operative cancer care.

Statement of translational relevanceSensitive methods for recurrence risk stratification, monitoring therapeutic efficacy, and early recurrence detection may have a major impact on treatment decisions and outcomes for stage III colorectal cancer patients. Circulating tumor DNA assessments performed postoperative, postadjuvant, and serially during surveillance all allowed stratification of patients into high and low risk groups. CtDNA detected recurrence with a significant leadtime compared to CT-imaging and ctDNA growth rates were prognostic of survival.Treatment of ctDNA positive patients with standard adjuvant therapy prevented recurrence in only 20% of patients. Accordingly, further studies exploring the optimal treatment for ctDNA positive patients are needed, as well as interventional studies assessing the clinical utility of ctDNA-based risk-stratification. A promising opportunity is risk-stratified allocation of surveillance resources, which may improve both the cost-effectiveness and the overall clinical outcome of surveillance. Finally, ctDNA growth rates may identify patients who could benefit from immediate therapeutic intervention compared to awaiting recurrence.Research.

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Antibody-directed enzyme prodrug therapy is a targeted therapy in which a prodrug is activated selectively at the tumour site by an enzyme, which has been targeted to the tumour by an antibody (antibody-enzyme conjugate). Previous clinical trials have shown evidence of tumour response, however, the activated drug had a long half-life, which resulted in dose-limiting myelosuppression. Also, the targeting system, although giving high tumour to blood ratios of antibody-enzyme conjugate (10 000 : 1) required administration of a clearing antibody in addition to the antibody-enzyme conjugate. The purpose of this current study therefore was to attempt tumour targeting of the antibody-enzyme conjugate without the clearing antibody, and to investigate a new prodrug (bis-iodo phenol mustard, ZD2767P) whose activated form is highly potent and has a short halflife. Twenty-seven patients were treated with antibody-directed enzyme prodrug therapy using A5CP antibody-enzyme conjugate and ZD2767P prodrug, in a dose-escalating phase I trial. The maximum tolerated dose of ZD2767P was reached at 15.5 mg m 72 6three administrations with a serum carboxypeptidase G2 level of 0.05 U ml 71 . Myelosuppression limited dose escalation. Other toxicities were mild. Patients' quality of life was not adversely affected during the trial as assessed by the measures used. There were no clinical or radiological responses seen in the study, but three patients had stable disease at day 56. Human anti-mouse antibody and human anti-carboxypeptidase G2 antibody were produced in response to the antibody enzyme conjugate (A5CP). The antibody-enzyme conjugate localisation data (carboxypeptidase G2 enzyme levels by HPLC on tumour and normal tissue samples, and gamma camera analysis of I-131 radiolabelled conjugate) are consistent with inadequate tumour localisation (median tumour: normal tissue ratios of antibody-enzyme conjugate of less than 1). A clearance system is therefore desirable with this antibody-enzyme conjugate or a more efficient targeting system is required. ZD2767P was shown to clear rapidly from the circulation and activated drug was not measurable in the blood. ZD2767P has potential for use in future antibody-directed enzyme prodrug therapy systems.

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