People are the most important factors of economy and the primary carriers of social culture. Cross-border migration brings economic and cultural impacts to the origin and destination and is also a key to reflect the international relations of related countries. In fact, the migration relationships of countries are complex and multilateral, but most traditional migration models are bilateral. Network theories could provide a better description of global migration to show the structure and statistical characteristics more clearly. Based on the estimated migration data and disparity filter algorithm, the networks describing the global multilateral migration relationships have been extracted among 200 countries over fifty years. The results show that the global migration networks during 1960–2015 exhibit a clustering and disassortative feature, implying globalized and multipolarized changes of migration during these years. The networks were embed into a Poincaré disk, yielding a typical and hierarchical “core-periphery” structure, which is associated with angular density distribution, and has been used to describe the “multicentering” trend since 1990s. Analysis on correlation and evolution of communities indicates the stability of most communities, yet some structural changes still exist since 1990s, which reflect that the important historical events are contributable to regional and even global migration patterns.
In China, the evolution of inter-provincial migration patterns is from policy orientation to individual selection and hotspot attraction during 1950–2010. These years, China’s abundant regional labor flow brings prosperity to several famous high-growth regions, but also causes the problem of unbalanced development. It needs systematic analysis to do effective guidance and management of population mobility. This paper tries to analyze the driving and dragging force in China’s inter-provincial migration flows with improved multilateral migration model stemming from individual behavior of potential migrants. It revealed the problem of imbalanced regional labor flow has been exacerbated in China since the 1990s, and the driving force for typical hotspots is different, as high income force for Beijing, Shanghai, and low barrier for Guangzhou, Zhejiang. The results of analyzing indicates the the distinct regional mobility barriers help to alleviate the problem of labor loss in some provinces since 1980s, but the regional imbalance in population migration continues to grow in recent years. Finally, with regression, we reveal the essential element affecting regional mobility barriers, and it could explain 70.8% of the influence factors. It also suggests that, for the provinces with labor loss, improving economic, welfare environment will mitigate the problem effectively.
In contrast to the rapid integration of the world economy, many regional trade agreements (RTAs) have also emerged since the early 1990s. This contradiction has encouraged scholars and policymakers to explore the true effects of RTAs, including both regional and global trade relationships. This paper defines synthesized trade resistance and decomposes it into natural and artificial factors. Here, we separate the influence of geographical distance, economic volume, and overall increase in transportation and labor costs and use the expectation maximization algorithm to optimize the parameters and quantify the trade purity indicator, which describes the true global trade environment and relationships among countries. This indicates that although global and most regional trade relations gradually deteriorated during the period 2007–2017, RTAs generate trade relations among members, especially contributing to the relative prosperity of European Union (EU) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries. In addition, we apply the network to reflect the purity of the trade relations among countries. The effects of RTAs can be analyzed by comparing typical trade unions and trade communities, which are presented using an empirical network structure. This analysis shows that the community structure is quite consistent with some trade unions, and the representative RTAs constitute the core structure of international trade network. However, the role of trade unions has weakened, and multilateral trade liberalization has accelerated in the past decade. This means that more countries have recently tended to expand their trading partners outside of these unions rather than limit their trading activities to RTAs.
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