Analyzing the driving and dragging force in China’s inter-provincial migration flows

Abstract

In China, the evolution of inter-provincial migration patterns is from policy orientation to individual selection and hotspot attraction during 1950–2010. These years, China’s abundant regional labor flow brings prosperity to several famous high-growth regions, but also causes the problem of unbalanced development. It needs systematic analysis to do effective guidance and management of population mobility. This paper tries to analyze the driving and dragging force in China’s inter-provincial migration flows with improved multilateral migration model stemming from individual behavior of potential migrants. It revealed the problem of imbalanced regional labor flow has been exacerbated in China since the 1990s, and the driving force for typical hotspots is different, as high income force for Beijing, Shanghai, and low barrier for Guangzhou, Zhejiang. The results of analyzing indicates the the distinct regional mobility barriers help to alleviate the problem of labor loss in some provinces since 1980s, but the regional imbalance in population migration continues to grow in recent years. Finally, with regression, we reveal the essential element affecting regional mobility barriers, and it could explain 70.8% of the influence factors. It also suggests that, for the provinces with labor loss, improving economic, welfare environment will mitigate the problem effectively.

Structure and Dynamic of Global Population Migration Network

“…So the existing methods based on bilateral relationship will bring the problem of information loss and distortion, which has promoted the development of multilateral models and theories. Subsequent scholars put forward the definition of the multilateral migration barrier and introduced the structural gravity model [18][19][20] and multilateral probability model [2,21,22]. Such improvements from bilateral to multilateral analysis are meaningful yet still insufficient, because the indefinite definitions of multilateral barriers and coupling parameters hinder the following quantitative work and bring some controversy in estimation [23].…”

Longcuts in the global migration network

“…It needs to be expanded to multilateral relations and n-body problems [14]. Li and Chen proposed a multilateral migration model (LC Model) stemming from self-selection theory [23,24] and quantified the migration costs to obtain some interesting results [3,25,26]. Here we calculate the migration costs based on the LC model, and identify the possible transit countries and routes by discussing the abnormal trigonometric inequalities from a systematic perspective [27,28].…”

“…We assume that potential migrants with the same origin and destination face equal migration barriers under comparable circumstances [29]; then, the migration cost matrix is obtained with the LC model [3,27]:…”

Innovative Management Strategies for the Rule of Law of Cross-border Mobile Population Based on Information Fusion Technology

“…For example, the literature [17] detected changes in the mental health of vulnerable immigrants; propose to build a multi-level governance platform. The literature [18] proposes a new concept of collaborative governance that advocates the establishment of a multi-body collaborative governance system. The literature [19] attempts to analyze the driving and dragging forces of inter-provincial migration flows in China in terms of the individual behavior of potential migrants through an improved multilateral migration model.…”