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Electric vehicles will contribute to emissions reductions in the United States, but their charging may challenge electricity grid operations. We present a data-driven, realistic model of charging demand that captures the diverse charging behaviours of future adopters in the US Western Interconnection. We study charging control and infrastructure build-out as critical factors shaping charging load and evaluate grid impact under rapid electric vehicle adoption with a detailed economic dispatch model of 2035 generation. We find that peak net electricity demand increases by up to 25% with forecast adoption and by 50% in a stress test with full electrification. Locally optimized controls and high home charging can strain the grid. Shifting instead to uncontrolled, daytime charging can reduce storage requirements, excess non-fossil fuel generation, ramping and emissions. Our results urge policymakers to reflect generation-level impacts in utility rates and deploy charging infrastructure that promotes a shift from home to daytime charging.

HighlightsElectricity consumption changes during COVID-19 are estimated for 58 regions Impacts on electricity consumption are highly heterogeneous across regions Consumption changes are tightly linked to mobility and government restrictions Consumption changes also relate to a region's pre-pandemic sensitivity to holidays

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Planning to support widespread transportation electrification depends on detailed estimates for the electricity demand from electric vehicles in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. We present a modeling approach to rapidly generate charging estimates that include control for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. We model uncontrolled charging demand using statistical representations of real charging sessions. We model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles with a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control with multiple electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5% to 4.5%), while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. We illustrate the methodology by generating scenarios for California's 2030 charging demand including multiple charging segments and controls, with scenarios run locally in under 50 seconds, and for assisting rate design modeling the large-scale impact of a new workplace charging rate.