Abstract. A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, forecasts based on meteorological ensembles, and a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variable uncertainty. This comparison takes place for the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in southern central Quebec, Canada. The assessment of forecasts is performed for lead times of 1 to 5 days, both in terms of forecasts' quality (relative to the corresponding record of observations) and in terms of economic value, using the new proposed framework based on the CARA utility function. It is found that the economic value of a forecast for a risk-averse decision maker is closely linked to the forecast reliability in predicting the upper tail of the streamflow distribution. Hence, post-processing forecasts to avoid overforecasting could help improve both the quality and the value of forecasts.
Day by day the population of India is rising. So it is important to fulfill the need of food, modernization of agricultural sectors. Farmers in our country use fertilizers and pesticides on crops for removing weeds and other unwanted vegetation, insecticides for controlling a wide variety of insects, preventing the spread of bacteria, and compounds used to control mice and rats. Conventionally the spraying is done by farmers carrying backpack sprayer and fertilizers are sprayed manually. It is very harmful to their health and can be dangerous. The efforts required are on the higher side. Pesticide spraying machine is available in the market so there is no issue. But it is acquiring high cost for buying two separate equipment’s for fertilizer and pesticide spraying which isn’t affordable to farmers. So by taking into consideration the present problem faced by farmers we are coming up with the solution of “Dual Sprayer for Pesticides and Fertilizers”. The aim of our project is to minimize the health issues of the farmer, to provide more feasibility with minimum possible cost, to reduce the efforts of farmers of fertilizer spraying and provide both fertilizer and pesticide sprayer in one setup.
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