ABSTRACT. Patchouli [Pogostemon cablin (Blanco) Benth.] is an aromatic, herbaceous plant belonging to the Lamiaceae family native to Southeast Asia. Its leaves produce an essential oil regularly used by the perfume and cosmetics industries. However, since patchouli from the Philippines and India were described and named Pogostemon patchouli, there has been a divergence in the identity of these species. The objective of the current study was to study the genetic diversity of patchouli accessions in the Active Germplasm Bank of Universidade Federal de Sergipe using microsatellite and inter simple sequence repeat markers. The results of both types of molecular markers showed that there are two well-defined clusters of accessions that harbor exclusive alleles. It was observed that these two clusters are genetically distant, suggesting that they belong to
In this work, we proposed a variant of the SIR model, taking as based on models used to describe the epidemic outbreak in South Korea and Portugal, to study the COVID-19epidemic curve in Brazil. The model presented here describes with reasonable agreement the number of COVID-19 cases registered in Brazil between February 26 and May 18, 2020 based on the hypothesis that there a large number no notified cases (11 to 1) and variation in contagion rate according to social isolation measures and greater or lesser exposure to the virus (highest rate in beginning from epidemic). To this end, we introduced an exposure factor, called β 1 /β 2 , which allows us to describe the influence of factors such as social isolation on dispersal from disease. The results also corroborate a phenomenon observed in countries that registered a high growth in cases in short period of time, to example of Italy, Spain and USA: if isolation measures are imposed late, the total number of cases explodes when the epidemic is approaching from peak, which implies a higher exposure rate in the first days of case registration.From the data collected, we made the linear adjustment of the infected curve according to the time between the 41st and 74th days since the official notification of the first case and we obtained a high infection rate in the period, close to 4.0. The result indicates that the relaxation of social exclusion measures contributed to the high increase in cases in the period. This result reinforces the adoption of the model that differentiates unexposed susceptible from those that are most exposed to contagion. The model also predicts that the peak epidemic outbreak in Brazil, based on the number of cases, will occur around in late May and early June.
Utilizamos neste trabalho dois modelos para o estudo do comportamento da curva epidêmica da COVID-19 no estado de Sergipe entre os dias 14 de março de 2020 e 02 de maio de 2020: modelo SIR convencional e uma variante deste, que incorpora o número de indivíduos mais expostos ao contágio do que o restante da população. Construímos essa variante do modelo SIR com base em outro modelo proposto para descrever o surto epidêmico da COVID-19 na Coreia do Sul e em Portugal. No modelo SIR com exposição aqui proposto, introduzimos um fator de exposição, denominado β1/β2, que permite descrever a influência de fatores, como afastamento social, no espalhamento da doença. Em nosso trabalho, para fazer a comparação entre os dados obtidos via simulação e o número de casos oficialmente registrados no estado de Sergipe; consideramos que há entre três e nove casos reais para cada caso registrado oficialmente, que há indivíduos com maior probabilidade de contágio do que outros, aqui denominados indivíduos expostos, e que o número de reprodução varia com o tempo, crescendo exponencialmente na fase início do surto epidêmico. Os resultados da simulação mostram que a taxa de contágio se encontra na faixa de 2,9 ou superior, região em que há maior concordância entre o modelo e dados coletados.
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