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Development of demand for organic foods on three European markets (Denmark, Italy and UK) was investigated by means of quantitative analysis of household panel data and qualitative analysis of consumer life stories and shopping patterns. Potential development was investigated by means of scenario analysis undertaken by experts. Considerable differences between households underlay patterns of increasing aggregate demand at national levels, and fluctuations over time were identified at the household level. Interest in purchasing organic products on a regular basis and actual changes in shopping practices did not proceed apace. Limited availability has constituted a major barrier to increasing demand among 'regular' users. Demand on the part of 'occasional' users reflected a wider range of barriers, including lack of interest in and knowledge about production and processing and lack of trust in stakeholders and certification procedures. A likely scenario for future demand is that of continued stable expansion, dependent upon whether increasing input costs will favour organic production, whether the relative gap between organic and conventional food prices becomes smaller, whether organic products will be distributed more widely on national markets, and whether support for research and conversion of organic production systems on the part of public authorities is enhanced.

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Inappropriate diets constitute an important health risk and an increasing environmental burden. Healthy regional diets may contribute to meeting this dual challenge. A palatable, healthy and sustainable New Nordic diet (NND) based on organic products from the Nordic region has been developed. This study assesses whether a large-scale introduction of NND is a cost-effective health promotion strategy by combining an economic model for estimating the utility-maximizing composition of NND, a life cycle assessment model to assess environmental effects of the dietary change, and a health impact model to assess impacts on the disease burden. Consumer expenditure for food and beverages in the NND is about 16% higher than currently, with the largest relative difference in low-income households. Environmental loads from food consumption are 15%–25% lower, and more than 18,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) will be saved per year in Denmark. NND exhibits a cost-effectiveness ratio of about €73,000–94,000 per DALY saved. This cost-effectiveness improves considerably, if the NND’s emphasis on organic and Nordic-origin products is relaxed.