Global warming will lead to earlier beginnings and prolongation of growing seasons in temperate regions and will have pronounced effects on phenology and life-history adaptation in many species. These changes were not easy to simulate for actual phenologies because of the rudimentary temporal (season) and spatial (regional) resolution of climate model projections. We investigate the effect of climate change on the regional incidence of a pest insect with nearly worldwide distribution and very high potential for adaptation to season length and temperature – the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella. Seasonal and regional climate change signals were downscaled to the hourly temporal scale of a pest phenology model and the spatial scale of pest habitats using a stochastic weather generator operating at daily scale in combination with a re-sampling approach for simulation of hourly weather data. Under future conditions of increased temperatures (2045–2074), the present risk of below 20% for a pronounced second generation (peak larval emergence) in Switzerland will increase to 70–100%. The risk of an additional third generation will increase from presently 0–2% to 100%. We identified a significant two-week shift to earlier dates in phenological stages, such as overwintering adult flight. The relative extent (magnitude) of first generation pupae and all later stages will significantly increase. The presence of first generation pupae and later stages will be prolonged. A significant decrease in the length of overlap of first and second generation larval emergence was identified. Such shifts in phenology may induce changes in life-history traits regulating the life cycle. An accordingly life-history adaptation in photoperiodic diapause induction to shorter day-length is expected and would thereby even more increase the risk of an additional generation. With respect to Codling Moth management, the shifts in phenology and voltinism projected here will require adaptations of plant protection strategies to maintain their sustainability.

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (<i>Cydia pomonella</i>) and fire blight (<i>Erwinia amylovora</i>) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1% on average today to over 60% in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g. insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations

The rosy apple aphid (Dysaphis plantaginea), the leaf-curling aphid (Dysaphis cf. devecta) and the green apple aphid (Aphis pomi) are widespread pest insects that reduce growth of leaves, fruits and shoots in apple (Malus × domestica). Aphid control in apple orchards is generally achieved by insecticides, but alternative management options like growing resistant cultivars are needed for a more sustainable integrated pest management (IPM). A linkage map available for a segregating F 1 -cross of the apple cultivars 'Fiesta' and 'Discovery' was used to investigate the genetic basis of resistance to aphids. Aphid infestation and plant growth characteristics were repeatedly assessed for the same 160 apple genotypes in three different environments and 2 consecutive years. We identified amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers linked to quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for resistance to D. plantaginea ('Fiesta' linkage group 17, locus 57.7, marker E33M35-0269; heritability: 28.3%), and to D. cf. devecta ('Fiesta' linkage group 7, locus 4.5, marker E32M39-0195; heritability: 50.2%). Interactions between aphid species, differences in climatic conditions and the spatial distribution of aphid infestation were identified as possible factors impeding the detection of QTLs. A pedigree analysis of simple sequence repeat (SSR) marker alleles closely associated with the QTL markers revealed the presence of the alleles in other apple cultivars with reported aphid resistance ('Wagener', 'Cox's Orange Pippin'), highlighting the genetic basis and also the potential for gene pyramiding of aphid resistance in apple. Finally, significant QTLs for shoot length and stem diameter were identified, while there was no relationship between aphid resistance and plant trait QTLs.

Climate change can alter the habitat suitability of invasive species and promote their establishment. The highly polyphagous brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to East Asia and invasive in Europe and North America, damaging a wide variety of fruit and vegetable crops. In Switzerland, crop damage and increasing populations have been observed since 2017 and related to increasing temperatures. We studied the climatic suitability, population growth, and the number of generations under present and future climate conditions for H. halys in Switzerland, using a modified version of the bioclimatic model package CLIMEX. To address the high topographic variability in Switzerland, model simulations were based on climate data of high spatial resolution (approx. 2 km), which significantly increased their explanatory power, and identified many more climatically suitable areas in comparison to previous models. The validation of the CLIMEX model using observational records collected in a citizen science initiative between 2004 and 2019 revealed that more than 15 years after its accidental introduction, H. halys has colonised nearly all bioclimatic suitable areas in Switzerland and there is limited potential for range expansion into new areas under present climate conditions. Simulations with climate change scenarios suggest an extensive range expansion into higher altitudes, an increase in generations per year, an earlier start of H. halys activity in spring and a prolonged period for nymphs to complete development in autumn. A permanent shift from one to two generations per year and the associated population growth of H. halys may result in increasing crop damages in Switzerland. These results highlight the need for monitoring the spread and population development in the northwestern part of Switzerland and higher altitudes of the valleys of the south.

Monitoring systems based on traps with female attractants are expected to enhance forecasting of insect population size and damage. The optimal placement of such traps should match the small-scale distribution of ovipositing females. In the codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), fruit infestation takes place in proximity to the oviposition site. We characterized the within-tree distribution of codling moth infestations and the size of uninfested fruit based on a survey of 40,000 apples (Malus spp.) from trees belonging to 160 different apple genotypes and growing in two different environments. Each tree was subdivided into 12 sectors, considering canopy aspect (north, east, south, and west) and canopy height (bottom, middle, and top). This study revealed that fruit infestation by the first but not by the second generation of larvae correlated significantly with canopy aspect. Similarly, fruit size differed significantly between the north- and the south-facing tree side for the period of infestation by the first but not by the second larval generation. Significantly lower fruit infestation was observed on the north- compared with the south- or east-facing tree side for the first generation. A significant influence of canopy height on larval infestation was observed in three of eight assessments, in which the middle height level showed the highest infestations. Significant differences in within-tree distribution of codling moth infestation suggest that oviposition preference is guided by nonrandom factors including microclimate, fruit phenology, and wind direction. These cultivar-independent findings should be considered in future monitoring systems that focus on female codling moth.

In high-value crops such as apple, Malus X domestica (Borkh.), insecticidal pest control is of high relevance. The use of resistant apple cultivars can increase the sustainability of pest management in apple orchards. Besides variation in plant chemistry that may influence plant resistance by antibiosis or antixenosis, plant growth characteristics also can affect plant susceptibility to pests such as aphids. Variable susceptibility to the apple aphid, Aphis pomi De Geer (Hemiptera: Aphididae), has been described for different apple cultivars. These observations were based on phenotypic surveys and no information on genetically based apple resistance to A. pomi is yet available. The objective of this study was to relate shoot growth characteristics with aphid population development, and to assess the genetic background of apple antibiosis-based resistance to A. pomi by quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis. Aphid population development was repeatedly studied in the field in sleeve cages attached to 200 apple trees of different genotypes. Aphid population development was positively correlated to shoot length and growth, and it also was affected by climatic conditions. Indications for antibiosis-based resistance to A. pomi remained weak in the studied apple genotypes, and the only detected putative QTL on linkage group 11 of'Fiesta' apples was not stable for the different replications of the experiment. This lack of quantifiable resistance may be partly explained by environmental conditions related to aphid development in sleeve cages.

As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously not affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology depending on actual weather conditions and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (<i>Cydia pomonella</i>) and fire blight (<i>Erwinia amylovora</i>) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1 % on average today to over 60 % in the future for the median climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation, an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g., insecticides) will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection days under future climate conditions for most stations

Monitoring systems based on traps with female attractants are expected to enhance forecasting of insect population size and damage. The optimal placement of such traps should match the small-scale distribution of ovipositing females. In the codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), fruit infestation takes place in proximity to the oviposition site. We characterized the within-tree distribution of codling moth infestations and the size of uninfested fruit based on a survey of 40,000 apples (Malus spp.) from trees belonging to 160 different apple genotypes and growing in two different environments. Each tree was subdivided into 12 sectors, considering canopy aspect (north, east, south, and west) and canopy height (bottom, middle, and top). This study revealed that fruit infestation by the first but not by the second generation of larvae correlated significantly with canopy aspect. Similarly, fruit size differed significantly between the north- and the south-facing tree side for the period of infestation by the first but not by the second larval generation. Significantly lower fruit infestation was observed on the north- compared with the south- or east-facing tree side for the first generation. A significant influence of canopy height on larval infestation was observed in three of eight assessments, in which the middle height level showed the highest infestations. Significant differences in within-tree distribution of codling moth infestation suggest that oviposition preference is guided by nonrandom factors including microclimate, fruit phenology, and wind direction. These cultivar-independent findings should be considered in future monitoring systems that focus on female codling moth.