Current distribution and voltinism of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, in Switzerland and its response to climate change using a high-resolution CLIMEX model

Abstract

Climate change can alter the habitat suitability of invasive species and promote their establishment. The highly polyphagous brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to East Asia and invasive in Europe and North America, damaging a wide variety of fruit and vegetable crops. In Switzerland, crop damage and increasing populations have been observed since 2017 and related to increasing temperatures. We studied the climatic suitability, population growth, and the number of generations under present and future climate conditions for H. halys in Switzerland, using a modified version of the bioclimatic model package CLIMEX. To address the high topographic variability in Switzerland, model simulations were based on climate data of high spatial resolution (approx. 2 km), which significantly increased their explanatory power, and identified many more climatically suitable areas in comparison to previous models. The validation of the CLIMEX model using observational records collected in a citizen science initiative between 2004 and 2019 revealed that more than 15 years after its accidental introduction, H. halys has colonised nearly all bioclimatic suitable areas in Switzerland and there is limited potential for range expansion into new areas under present climate conditions. Simulations with climate change scenarios suggest an extensive range expansion into higher altitudes, an increase in generations per year, an earlier start of H. halys activity in spring and a prolonged period for nymphs to complete development in autumn. A permanent shift from one to two generations per year and the associated population growth of H. halys may result in increasing crop damages in Switzerland. These results highlight the need for monitoring the spread and population development in the northwestern part of Switzerland and higher altitudes of the valleys of the south.

Diversity and distribution of cytochrome oxidase I (COI) haplotypes of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae), along the eastern front of its invasive range in Eurasia

“…global connectivity of non-contiguous areas; Garnas et al 2016) facilitating the spread of an already-established, dominant haplotype through the bridgehead effect (Lombaert et al 2010). In addition, climatic factors in some regions may permit more rapid population growth (and increased agricultural impacts) due to multiple generations of any given successfully-established haplotype (Musolin et al 2019;Stoeckli et al 2020). However, variation in performance traits in invasive insect species can be an important predictor of their success in establishment and spread across a broad geographic range (Thompson et al 2021).…”

Modelling the Potential Geographic Distribution of Two Trissolcus Species for the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug, Halyomorpha halys

“…However, there are new location records for H. halys in Europe that do not fall within areas projected to be climatically suitable (Figures 3a and 4a). As demonstrated in a recent analysis for Switzerland [38] using a finer climate grid (0.02 • versus the 0.1667 • of the CliMond dataset used here), this is likely due to the scale of the climate grid rather than an issue with the CLIMEX model. The location records in areas projected to be unsuitable in Italy, Switzerland, Austria and Germany (Figures 3a and 4a) all fall in mountainous areas with high topographic relief, where the modelled climate is not represented at sufficient granularity to match the distribution records appropriately [81].…”

“…Climate is the primary determinant of a species' distribution [28][29][30][31]. There have been countless studies in pest risk management looking to assess the suitability of novel areas for species invasion, all focusing on how the climatic conditions within the current distribution compare to the novel areas under consideration, whether these be under current [32][33][34] or future climate scenarios [35][36][37][38]. Following previous studies using CLIMEX to assess the potential distribution of H. halys [7] and T. japonicus [39], we used CLIMEX to assess the potential distribution of T. mitsukurii.…”

Citizen science and niche modeling to track and forecast the expansion of the brown marmorated stinkbug Halyomorpha halys (Stål, 1855)

“…In a recent study, Maistrello et al 12 , 70 came to a similar conclusion in different regions of Italy. Stoeckli et al 71 used records collected in a citizen science initiative to assess the potential for BMSB spread in Switzerland 15 years after its introduction and showed that nearly all suitable areas have been colonized. In France, the spread has accelerated in recent years, with more than 50% of departments colonized between 2018 and 2019.…”

“…Elsewhere in Europe, the BMSB is mainly a domestic inconvenience so far. In a recent study, Stoeckli et al 71 showed that both the number of generations per year and the activity periods in spring and late autumn could possibly increase in Switzerland as a result of climate change. Such changes in population dynamics or phenology could trigger more crop losses not only in Switzerland but in many European regions.…”